Thinking Pinoy

Who killed Ninoy Aquino? The 1979 Iranian Revolution suggests Marcos' didn't do it.

The Supreme Court recently decided in favor of burying the remains of the late Ferdinand Marcos in the Libingan ng mga Bayani. The pro-burial crowd urged healing and closure, but the anti-burial crowd said the Marcos Family should return its ill-gotten wealth and pay for the gross Martial Law-era human rights violations before discussions on healing and closure can even begin.

In my August 2016 article “Marcos in LNMB? Leni Robredo really is a terrible lawyer”, I explained that the 30 years’ worth of Aquino neglect made Marcos’ LNMB burial. That is, the Aquino political dynasty, despite having control over the legislature for so long, neglected to pass even one law – or even file one bill – that would make Marcos’ LNMB burial illegal. Because of the Aquinos’ neglect, the doctrine of nullum crimen, nulla poena sine lege (there is no crime when there is no law punishing it [SC GR 176364]) – applied to the Marcos case.

The irony of it all is that Benigno “Ninoy” Aquino Jr.’s namesakes both failed miserably in preventing this from happening. Benigno Simeon “Noynoy” Aquino III was a senator for six years and a congressman for nine yet he still failed to even file one bill about it. The same goes with Senator Paolo Benigno “Bam” Aquino IV, who has been a senator for 3 years and counting. PNoy was also president for six years, so he had to power, as the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces, to issue a simple order banning Marcos LNMB burial – a power that he never exercised.

Seriously, if the anti-burial crowd thinks Marcos’ LNMB burial is a the biggest insult to this nation’s history, then I guess they should start suing Noynoy and Bam for criminal negligence [BatasNatin].

The Death of Ninoy Aquino

Of all the people killed during Marcos’ time, the highest-profile victim, perhaps, is Benigno “Ninoy” Aquino Jr., who was shot dead on the airport tarmac after returning to the country in 1983. And now that we’re at it, why don’t we examine the circumstances surrounding his death?

After all, it was Ninoy’s death has been used – ad nauseam – as the prime example of Marcos atrocities. His death triggered the chain of events that culminated into what was the First EDSA revolution. Ninoy’s death catapulted an erstwhile unpalatable Cory Aquino to the presidency. And most importantly, Ninoy’s death is the symbolic anchor of everything that the Yellow Camp stands for.

Hence, let’s ask: who killed Ninoy in the first place?

Ferdinand Marcos did it?

Ferdinand Marcos, Ninoy’s archenemy is the easiest answer to this question. The problem, however, is that this answer is too easy. I have been blogging about contemporary Philippine Politics for about a year now and if there’s something that I have learned after having written 200 articles, it’s that digging a little deeper usually shows a different, and often more sinister picture.

Thus, after a bit of digging, let me first tell you why I think Marcos couldn’t have ordered Ninoy’s assassination.
Ninoy was the poster boy of the political opposition and his popularity in the 70s and 80s is unquestionable. Killing him will make him a martyr, and martyrdom can catalyze revolutions. We all know what happened after Ninoy died: widespread unrest, the EDSA revolution, Marcos’ overthrow, and the installation of a Marcos-less government.

We can all call Marcos diabolical, evil, murderous, or even genocidal. But if there’s one thing that Marcos is not, it’s stupid. Yes, even Marcos’s staunchest critics will concede that the old man is extremely cunning and smart.

Could Marcos have foreseen such a possibility?

Well, because four years prior to Ninoy’s fateful (and fatal) homecoming, a similar – almost identical – chain of events happened in Iran, and it’s called the 1979 Iranian Revolution.

Marcos should have been very aware of the events in Iran, as no one can argue that Iran was outside Marcos’ radar.

Marcos’ wife Imelda seems to have been close to (or at least, was very interested in) the Pahlavis of Iran. On the way home from Rome in 1969, Imelda stopped by Iran to visit the Shah. Imelda was also part of a diplomatic visit to Iran in 1971 for the 2,500th Year Celebration of the Persian Empire [Garcia 2016].

I will now give you a rundown of that chapter in Iranian history, then I will explain how it paralleled the Philippine situation in the months preceding Ninoy’s assassination.

British Monopoly over Iranian Oil

Context is essential, so before I talk about the 1979 Iranian Revolution, let me give you a quick background of the events that happened before that.

Since the early 1900s, a single British company, the Anglo-Iranian Oil Company (AIOC), had a monopoly over Iran’s vast petroleum resources. At the time, AIOC was the most profitable British company on the planet [CBS]. AIOC is the predecessor company of today’s British Petroleum (BP) [Henniker 2013].
AIOC’s cheap oil fueled UK economic boom, cheap oil made possible by the exploitation of Iranian workers, causing discontent to spread among the population. Reza Shah, the ruling Iranian monarch, struck a 1933 agreement with AIOC, with the latter promising to give laborers better pay and more opportunities for advancement, build schools, hospitals, roads and a telephone system. AIOC didn’t fulfill its promises [NWE].

In 1950, the Iranians found out that the United States, which historically monopolized Saudi oil through the American Arabian Oil Company (today’s Saudi Aramco), agreed to split profits 50-50 with the Saudis [PSU]. The Iranians, who have been receiving pitifully miniscule royalties from AIOC, wanted a similar deal with the British. The Britons rejected their demand [NWE].

Britain continued to exercise control over Iran’s natural resources, and Iranians continuously protested over their lack of power in their homeland. This feeling of helplessness among Iranians fueled nationalistic sentiments, and nationalism for Iranians means taking back control of Iranian oil.

The Iranian Struggle for Economic Independence

In retaliation to the British, the Iranian Parliament voted in 1951 to nationalize the AIOC and installed nationalist Mohammed Mossadegh as Prime Minister[NWE].

The UK retaliated by launching an ICJ case versus Iran, but the ICJ dismissed the case in 1952 for lack of jurisdiction, as the ICJ affects only treaties ratified from 1933 onwards, and the treaty concerning AIOC was signed before that [ICJ: UK vs Iran].

The UK did not give up. Enlisting help of the CIA, the UK covertly supported the 1953 Iranian coup d’etat which overthrew the democratically-elected Mossadegh [GWU], turning Iran from a constitutional monarchy to an absolute monarchy with the House of Pahlavi at the helm.

Thus, after two short years of relative independence, Iran was under UK control again – all in the name of oil. The pre-1950’s social unrest was back after the 1953 coup. Yes, it’s back again, and it became the sleeping monster that was the foundation of the 1979 Iranian Revolution.

The 1979 Iranian Revolution

Dissent against the Pahlavi dynasty intensified, with religious leader Ayatollah Khomeini serving as the figurehead after he urged in 1963 the ruling Shah to recognize the government’s mistakes and to abandon Western dependence… and calling the shah a “miserable wretch” in the process. Khomeini was the first major figure to speak against the monarchy, as everyone fears violent retaliation from the government [Providence].

And surely enough, he was put in jail and while incarcerated, Ayatollah Khomeini slowly became a symbol of the Iranian opposition.Over a decade later in October 1977, Khomeini’s son and chief aide Mostafa mysteriously died. The government said it was a heart attack, but the public believed it was a covert government-sanctioned assassination [Spencer 2016]. The public saw Mostafa’s death as an attack against the Khomeini family, which at the time was at the forefront of the resistance.

Widespread, long term anti-government protests in major Iranian cities followed. Public sentiment continued to grow against the Pahlavi regime and in September 1978, the Armed Forces fired against thousands of protesters, killing dozens. Known as Black Friday, this was the pivotal event of the 1979 revolution and the start of the Pahlavi Dynasty’s downfall. The ruling Shah fled Iran in January 1979 and Khomeini returned from his exile in France and Iraq to fill the power vacuum [UChicago].

The Khomeinis and their allies have dominated Iranian government from then up to this day.

The Basic Elements of Iranian Revolution

To make comparisons easier, let’s think of the Iranian Revolution as a recipe, i.e. a set of ingredients processed in a certain sequence.

First, widespread discontent among the masses: the oil issue bugged Iranians for decades, and the uneven economic growth of post-1953 Iran simply added fuel to the fire.

Second, an oppressed but popular opposition: we are referring not only to the Khomeinis, but also the political opposition that was also the victim of the repressive Pahlavi Regime.

Third, a suitable and willing establishment-backed replacement: Ayatollah Khomeini, who the public sees as the one with the “moral ascendancy” to lead Iran should the Pahlavis be overthrown.

Fourth, a flurry of crowd mobilizers: the Shiite clerics loyal to Khomeini throughout Iran have the power and influence to mobilize the masses

Fifth, a powerful catalyst: the perceived martyr Mostafa Khomeini.

Now, let’s check the Philippine Situation before August 1983 and see which of these ingredients were already present at that time.

Marcos and pre-August 1983 Philippines

First, widespread discontent of the masses, stemming from Martial Law human rights violations, was already present before the 80s. Some pro-Marcos camps may argue that these excesses were confined to a small chunk of the population, but the fact remains that these events were sufficiently publicized [TP: Mosquito Press] to make the masses care enough about what’s happening.

Adding fuel to the fire is the economic recession that started in 1982, a year before Ninoy’s assassination [WB].

Second, an oppressed but popular opposition: The relatively popular Liberal Party of the 70s and 80s, starting from the fateful 1971 Plaza Miranda Bombing [MT], has always been seen as the oppressed opposition.

Third, a suitable and willing establishment-backed replacement: here’s where Ninoy Aquino comes in. He is, after all, the poster boy of the oppressed opposition. Other potential replacements were Marcos-era Opposition leader Salvador Laurel [MT], Defense Minister Juan Ponce Enrile [Kawato 2015, p. 165], and Philippine Constabulary Chief Fidel Ramos, and Marcos billionaire lackey Ambassador Eduardo “Danding” Cojuangco [TP: Coco Levy].

Fourth, a flurry of crowd mobilizers: the Catholic hierarchy headed by oppositionist Jaime Cardinal Sin can provide the warm bodies. Since 1972, Sin has been critical of the Marcos regime [Guardian].

Thus, we are left with the fifth and final ingredient: a catalyst.

The Missing Fifth Ingredient

Marcos could’ve pretended that he’s still the most popular guy around, but he most probably got a wake up call when he allowed Ninoy to speak on national TV in 1978. The streets were empty as everyone watched Ninoy live [Unjieng 2009, p.133], just like today’s streets when Pacquiao has a boxing match.

Marcos knows killing Ninoy is a bad idea. Despite having been out of the public’s eye during his six-years-and-counting detention, the public’s interest in Ninoy seems to not have abated.

Yes, the Philippine situation in the years preceding 1983 was almost ripe for a revolution, and the only thing that’s missing is the fifth ingredient: a powerful catalyst, and Marcos should have known the entire time that Ninoy Aquino was a (if not “the”) potentially powerful catalyst.

Yes, Marcos knows that Ninoy’s death is his own downfall, as evidenced by the political concessions he made after 1979, and here are some examples:

In 1980, Marcos allowed Ninoy to fly to the US to receive medical treatment [NYTimes].
In 1981, he lifted martial Law, along with the release of 341 inmates, half of which are political prisoners [GovPH].
In a 1982 bid to restore the 'prestige, integrity and good name' of the scandal-plagued Philippines Supreme Court, Marcos accepted the mass resignation of all 14 justices [UPI].

What’s clear, by early 1983 at the latest, is that Marcos was feeling the heat. Already old and sickly [Unjieng 2009, p.133], Marcos knows that his grip on power was precarious at best.

And the last thing he’d want would be to kill Ninoy, as that will provide the fifth and final ingredient for his fall from grace.

This bears repeating: given the circumstances and the events immediately preceding 1983, killing Ninoy will trigger a revolution, an overthrow of the Marcos autocracy.

If Marcos killed Ninoy, then Marcos must be stupid.

But Marcos is not stupid, right?

So if Marcos didn’t kill Ninoy, who did?

I have a pretty good idea who did it, but I’ll save that for my next post.[ThinkingPinoy]

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Sec. Mark Villar, through his media officer, said DPWH to build bridge in Iligan after seeing viral video.

On 14 November 2016, MinYas Mangorsi posted a Facebook video showing two schoolchildren crossing an improvised bridge on the way to school.

The “bridge”, situated in a rural part of Iligan City in Mindanao, was just a pair of ropes held up by wooden stilts, over a raging river.

The two kids face mortal danger as they pass through this flimsy structure every day.

The video quickly went viral after it was reuploaded a day later by digital activist Mocha Uson on her Facebook page, with a total of 2 million views so far.

But the story didn’t end there.

DPWH Sec. Mark Villar

Now, if you've been following the ThinkingPinoy Facebook page, I interviewed Public Works Secretary Mark Villar on 04 November 2016, so I maintained contact with DPWH since then.

On the same day Mocha Uson reposted the viral video, Sec. Villar’s media officer Anna Mae Llamentillo (DPWH) messaged me.

The following conversation ensued:

DPWH: Mocha posted a video of kids. Would you know location? Could I get her contact details? I showed Sec. (Villar) the video. We at DPWH can help.

ThinkingPinoy (TP): “Ayy! Yung nasa ilog?“(Oh! The one at the river?)”

DPWH: Yup!

TP: Ask ko sa manager ni Mocha. (I’ll ask Mocha’s manager.)

DPWH: Thanks!

A few minutes later…

TP: Uy ‘teh, it’s in G'tum, Brgy. Lanipao, Iligan City. Kung may plano kayong gawin, let me know. People want to know kasi. (Hey sis, it’s in G'tum, Brgy. Lanipao, Iligan City. If you plan to do something, let me know. Because people want to know.)

DPWH: Gotcha. Papupuntahan pa namin. 🙂Super duper thank you! (Gotcha. We’re sending somebody there. Super duper thank you!)

And there I was, amazed by the idea that social media is real. But wait! There’s more.

DPWH to build bridge

Just tonight, DPWH’s Llamentillo messaged me again to give an update.

DPWH: Hahaha! Sabi ni Sec Villar, ipapagawa na namin yung bridge! May short-term at long-term. Bigyan kita ng details bukas. Baka umpisa na next week, pinagawan lang namin muna ng design. Hahahaha! (Hahahah! Sec. Villar said we’re going to build the bridge! There’s a short-term and a long-term [bridge]. I’ll give you details tomorrow. We might start building next week, we’re just had to get designs first.)

TP: Ang taray! Paano plano? Jusko tulo luha ko nong napanood yong video. (So fierce! What’s the plan? My god, I shed tears when I watched that video.)

Llamentillo said they already are in the process of securing permits.

DPWH: Balak namin by December pero we're still checking feasibility… Outside of our jurisdiction kasi. Kailangan pa namin magpasintabi sa LGU. Hahahaha! (We plan [to build] by December but we’re still checking feasibility because it’s outside our jurisdiction. We still have to ask clearance from the LGU [Local Government Unit]. Hahahaha!)

TP: Papayag yon malamang. (They will probably give consent.)

DPWH: Ayusin ko lang yung permit. Hahaha! (I’ll just secure the permit. Hahaha!)

DPWH: GMA reported about it [GMA] and Ivan Mayrina said he wasn’t able to get a statement from the LGU so we just assumed responsibility. Sec Villar said we can just take the initiative and do it.

TP: Oo nga, tama na tsaka na muna ang sisihan, mga bata muna. (I agree. It’s just right to set aside the blaming for now, let’s think about the kids first.)

Short-term bridge now, long-term bridge later

Llamentillo said they will construct the temporary bridge in as early as December, with a long-term, sturdier bridge to follow.

DPWH: May initial report na ako kanina. Napuntahan na ng tao namin. Pabibilisan namin ‘to. (I received the initial report earlier today. Our field agents have inspected the area. We will do this ASAP.)

TP: Alam mo ba sabi nung mga readers ko? Kahit hanging bridge lang daw muna. Basta lang daw di sila mahulog. (You know what my readers said? Even a simple hanging bridge will do, just so they won’t fall to their deaths.)

DPWH: Hanging bridge nga yung ipapagawa naming as a temporary solution. Yun yung “short term” na sinabi ko earlier. Pero maganda ang design. Di naman masyadong bara-bara. Yung long-term bridge, pinag-aaralan pa, mas complex kasi yon. (Yeah, we’re building a hanging bridge as a temporary solution, that’s the “short term” I was referring to earlier. But the design is good, it’s well thought out. We are still studying the long-term bridge option because that’s a more complex issue.)

TP: Ayyy sige! Isusulat ko to! (Oh, okay! I’ll blog about this!)

DPWH: Pabibilisan namin ‘to. Yung actual construction one month long daw kasi 30 meters ang lapad ng ilog. (We’ll complete the project at the soonest. The actual construction takes a month because the river is 30 meters wide.)

TP: Sige, sige iba-blog ko! Yehey! (Okay, okay, I’ll blog about this! Yahoo!)

DPWH: Hahahaha! Exciting!

TP: Yes it is!

So there it is. These are one of those moments when I feel that this country still has hope! [ThinkingPinoy]

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I sincerely respect the outcry of some people against Ferdinand Marcos’ Libingan ng mga Bayani (LNMB) burial, such as UP Prof. Sarah Raymundo and Dra. Lorraine Badoy: I agree with most of their points.

What I do not agree with or at the least, what I do not respect, is the stance of my Aquino-aligned friends on the burial issue, for the simple reason that their “leader” — the Aquino Political Dynasty — doesn’t give a shit about Marcos’ LNMB burial anyway.

Let me tell you why.

A Brief Recap

In my August 2016 article “Marcos in LNMB? Lena really is a terrible lawyer”, I explained how the mostly Liberal Party-led government of the past thirty years neglected to fix the “legal loophole” that made Marcos eligible for burial in the

In that article, I explained that former President Cory Aquino herself gave her imprimatur on the Armed Forces of the Philippines (AFP) regulation enabling the Marcos burial which was, interestingly, penned by AFP Chief of Staff Fidel V. Ramos, the same person who succeeded Cory in 1992. I also explained how the Aquino Political Dynasty neglected to fix this “accident” for the next 30 years.

The Aquinos gave us two presidents (Cory, Noynoy), four senators (Noynoy, Butz, Bam, Tessie), and a horde of muti-term congressmen, of which Noynoy was also a part of. Despite this, none of them — not even one of their politicial minions — managed to even do something to revise the AFP regulation in question.

In response to a tweet related to the previous paragraph, Ambassador-designate Teddy Boy Locsin told me,“It is hard to explain why something was not done; easier why something was done. Cory was not vindictive to look that far.”

What’s the problem with this statement?

The Vindictive Cory Aquino

“Democracy icon” Cory Aquino, at least while still president, was actually vindictive.

In 1989, Philippine Star columnist Luis Beltran wrote that Cory “hid under the bed” amidst a coup d’etat, Cory retaliated by filing a libel suit against Beltran. Beltran and Star profusely apologized, but Cory rejected these apologies. Cory, as the President, even took the witness stand during the libel hearings. Eventually convicted, Beltran was jailed for half a year as a result [Teodoro 2003].

No forgiveness despite grovelling apologies resulting to Beltran’s imprisonment? That sounds like a vendetta to me. Saying “Cory wasn’t vindictive.” will make Journalist Chito Beltran’s journalist father Luis Beltran roll in his grave.

But this is just a libel case, right? Well, there’s another, much better example.
In 1989, a dying Ferdinand Marcos spoke to Vice-president Salvador Laurel. He said, “Please tell Mrs. Aquino to stop sending me her relatives. They are proposing and asking so many things. All I want is to die in my country…I will run over 90 percent of all my worldly possessions to our conversation to our people. I ask only 10 percent for my family [Laurel 1997].”

Marcos gave only one condition when he added, “Just let me die in my own country. I want to be buried beside my mother [ibid].”

Cory refused to receive Marcos’ message [ibid]. Yes, Cory didn’t even let Marcos die in his own country which to me, isn’t really too much to ask, especially since it defies logic.

If that is not vindictive, I don’t know what else is.

Cory’s misplaced idealism... or stupidity

Marcos only asked for 10 percent, while the government’s agent — who was trying to recover Marcos assets — was asking for twice that amount.
In 1986, Cory gave her blessings to Operation Big Bird, where Credit Manila President Michael de Guzman was supposed to recover the Marcos assets stored in Swiss banks, with de Guzman receiving a 20 percent commission for whatever loot was to be recovered. The plan was a complete failure after it was aborted, owing to conflicting viewpoints among government decision makers [MS].

The Philippine government did not recover any money from Operation Big Bird and it was even subjected to a congressional investigation years later [Chaikin 2000, p. 11]

And thirty years later, we are still going after the same assets. What if Cory just used common sense in 1989, would we still be having this problem today?

Cory’s Foresight (or the lack of it)

Let’s go back Locsin’s statement, that Cory was not vindictive to look that far.

I have clearly explained how Cory has actually been one vindictive son of a gun, but I am inclined to agree with Locsin that Cory lacked foresight.

Cory was never a politician prior to her presidency. She actually was less qualified than opposition leader Laurel, but Laurel stepped aside because of EDSA fever. At that time, the public felt that “a vote for Cory would be a vote for Ninoy… a vote for what Ninoy represented in death [Brands 1992, p. 330].”

That is, even it it’s quite possible that Marcos didn’t order Ninoy’s death [TP: Marcos didn’t kill Ninoy?], as witnesses pointed to Cory’s cousin Danding Cojuangco as the mastermind. Too bad the possible star witness, Ninoy assassin Pablo Martinez, that guy who can actually implicate Danding, was “killed in a road accident” in 2014 [TV5]. But I am digressing.

For the sake of argument, let’s just assume that Locsin is partially right. Let’s assume that Cory neither had the IQ nor the experience to look that far into the future, that the possibility of Marcos’ burial never entered her mind.

There are several issues with this alibi:

First, Marcos died in 1989, well within Cory’s term.
With the knowledge that former presidents have been buried in LNMB, it would take a lot of stupidity on Cory’s part for the idea of a Marcos LNMB burial to evade her. And if that idea didn’t evade her brain, that would mean Cory thought a Marcos LNMB burial wouldn’t be a big deal, and perhaps you know what that means.

Second, Cory wanted to erase everything Marcos.
Shortly after assuming office in 1986, Cory took every step to erase all traces of Marcos throughout the country [Time], essentially an attempt to diminish whatever Marcos’ positive achievements were. Surely, Cory cannot have such a short attention span: Marcos’ 1989 death should have reminded her that “Oh shit, he may get buried there!”

The Age-old LNMB Burial Issue

Res ipsa loquitur (Latin for "the thing speaks for itself") is a doctrine that basically says accidents imply negligence. That is, the accident that was Marcos’ eligibility for LNMB burial is a result of negligence, and negligence it was.

But for now, let’s give Cory a pass. Let’s just say she’s just incapable of foresight, period. Instead, let’s focus on what the Aquino Political Dynasty has done, post-Cory presidency, to rectify this oversight.

The fact of the matter is that the “law” that enabled Marcos’ LNMB burial is just an AFP regulation, something which can simply be superseded either by a simple request from the AFP Commander-in-Chief who happens to be the President, or if not enough, an Executive Order.

Two Aquino presidents, Cory and her son Noynoy, came and went, and not a single effort was taken to do either.

But let’s assume that the Cory and her progeny are all idiots, so let’s check whether Ninoy’s legistator-relatives did anything about it. After all, sans a presidential order and if such an LNMB burial really is a big deal, then the legislature could have done something about it through a law that expressly forbids a Marcos corpse in LNMB land.

Ninoy's brother Agapito “Butz" Aquino, who was a “pillar of the anti-dictatorship movement” and also a senator from 1986 to 1995, did did nothing about it [TV5].

Ninoy’s sister Tessie “Dancing Queen” Aquino-Oreta, a congresswoman from 1987 to 1998 and a senator from 1998 to 2004, did nothing either.

Benigno “Bam” Aquino IV, Ninoy’s grandnephew who milked the Ninoy likeness for all it’s worth, also did nothing in the three years that he’s been in the senate. Bam was elected Senator in 2013.

The same goes for Ninoy’s cousin Jesli Aquino-Lapus, who was Tarlac 3rd Dist. Representative from 1998 to 2007, and for Ninoy’s uncle Herminio Aquino, who was the representative of the same district from 1992 to 1998.

Yes, none of them gave a Rat's Ass about the LNMB dilemma.

Yes, none of the Aquinos — the people who should have been most invested in influencing the historical trajectory of the Marcos narrative — gave a shit.

But wait! There’s more.

Noynoy OK with Marcos’ Medal of Valor
Just to demonstrate further that the Aquinos gave no shit about Marcos’ LNMB burial, it is to be recalled that Ninoy’s own son, PNoy, allowed Vice-president Jejomar Binay in April 2011 to decide on whether Marcos should be buried in LNMB or not [GMA].

Yes, Noynoy delegated what’s supposed to be a crucial task to Jojo. Yes, Noynoy used the LNMB issue as a political booby trap for Mar Roxas’ likely rival in 2016.

Yes, Noynoy didn’t want to have a say on it. He wanted Binay to decide.

What’s worse? There’s something else that happened on that same day .

In reference to the AFP Medal of Valor awarded to the late Ferdinand Marcos, Aquino Deputy Spokesperson Abigail Valte in 2011 said, “These awards continue to be on the official roster of awards of the AFP. Until otherwise revoked, the awardees continue to receive appropriate recognition [TV5].”

Valte never retracted this statement, and no one in PNoy’s Malacanang — including PNoy himself — even attempted to downplay, let alone retract, Valte’s statement.

What does that mean? That means PNoy himself recognizes Marcos’ eligibility for a Medal of Valor award.

And what happens to Medal of Valor recipients? I don't know how what kind of semantic acrobatics the yellow camp will use to get out of this, but Medal of Valor awardess are technically heroes, you know.

Case in point, Medal of Valor awardees are included in AFP’s Hall of Heroes [Star]. Yes, even before the LNMB burial and since the Medal of Valor award in 1968, Marcos has already been included in the AFP’s Hall of Heroes -- and the Noynoy Aquino was OK with that.

I do not recall any protest in the past 30 years regarding the same.

Yup, nobody in the Aquino Family -- even the blabbermouth Kris Aquino -- spoke against it.

And by the way, where can Medal of Valor awardees be buried?

In the Libingan ng mga Bayani [ABS].

Holy shit. [ThinkingPinoy]

UPDATE (3 PM 19 Nov 2016): The Medal of Valor is not just an AFP award. It is awarded by the State itself. Even presidents have to salute to MoV awardees. But I guess the Aquinos didn't mind that. Susmarya.

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Earlier this month, President Rody Duterte cracked a joke about Vice-president Leni Robredo’s knees, The president said Robredo has smooth knees: it had no calluses. As expected, Robredo, her supporters, and women’s rights groups denounced the president’s comments for what they perceive as mysoginy.

Let’s call this the “Le-Knee” incident.

Duterte’s Double Entendre

Now, everyone knows that the president is non-native Tagalog speaker. Aside from his linguistic quirks [TP: Media Guide], Duterte uses “Binisayang Tagalog”, which essentially is a word-for-word Tagalog translation of his native Cebuano, i.e. he thinks in Cebuano but he attempts to talk in Tagalog.

Duterte’s statement about Leni’s knees – that it had no calluses – was actually a double entendre, as the Cebuano for “knees with no calluses” is an idiom describing a lazy person, or someone who slacks in her job.
Duterte made those comments during the Typhoon Yolanda Commemoration Ceremony and three years after the Yolanda struck, the Liberal Party-led government, who managed the rehab efforts from 2013 to mid-2016, managed to complete only 10 percent of the housing projects [Inq].

Leni is the Housing and Urban Development Coordinating Council head. She’s also the highest-ranking politician of the Liberal Party. Thus, In short, Duterte’s seemingly sleazy comment actually turned out to be a gentle reprimand for Robredo.

Dapat pa yatang magpasalamat non si Leni dahil hindi siya garapalang hiniya for her incompetence.

But then, I never really expected northerners to fully appreciate what the old man meant. Adding his history of unleashing tasteless comments [TP: Rape Joke], I perfectly understand the opposition’s disinclination to extend to him the benefit of the doubt.

And so, Robredo retaliated.

Leni’s Le-Knees

Asked about the seeming impropriety of his Le-Knee statement, the President said in defense, “To break the ice, 'yun ang ginawa ko [that’s what I did]. So what's so special about the body of a woman or the knee of the woman na walang kalyo [without callus]? Ibig sabihin baka hindi nagsisimba. [Maybe she doesn't go to church.] [CNN]”

Duterte thinks the Le-Knee issue is trivial, but Leni thinks otherwise.

“Tasteless remarks and inappropriate advances against women should have no place in our society. We should expect that most of all from our leaders,” Robredo told [CNN], in retaliation to Duterte’s remarks about her knees.

Judging from Robredo’s statement, a light-hearted comment about her knees is enough for her to get riled up. That is, a joke about her knees were enough for modest, reserved, and shy vice-president to feel that her womanhood was violated.

But just like the embattled Senator Leila de Lima, I feel like Robredo lacks an important ingredient for believability: consistency.

Kasi kung peminista ka, dapat para sa kapakanan ng LAHAT ng kababaihan, hindi ikaw lang.

Misogynistic Feminism

We all know that Duterte accused Senator Leila de Lima of having links to the illegal drug trade through her supposedly illicit relationship with her driver-cum-bodyguard Ronnie Dayan [TP: Oohh Ronnie]. De Lima cried foul, saying that Duterte’s personal tirades violate her rights as a woman.

De Lima basically framed her dilemma as a crusade of women against misogyny.

The problem, however, is de Lima’s admission that she indeed had a sexual affair with Dayan, and that contrary to de Lima’s claim, Dayan was and is still legally married to his wife. De Lima hated the personal attacks, but she didn’t mind violating the poor wife’s rights as a woman and more importantly, as Dayan’s wife.

There’s lies the inconsistency. There’s no such thing as a misogynistic feminist and as it turns out, Robredo appears to be a misogynistic feminist too.

Comment vs Contact

Recall that Robredo said she was offended by the Le-Knee remark, saying that “inappropriate advances against women should have no place in our society.”

What I do not understand, however, is how Robredo couldn’t tolerate inappropriate comments when she can, in fact, tolerate inappropriate contact.

Note that I am not insinuating that Leni and Bolet have carnal relations. However, given the more stringent moral guidelines Leni loves to impose on politicians from rival parties, it is reasonable to expect that she follows the same.

Platonic enough?

The image above, taken two days before the elections, shows Quezon City Representative Jorge “Bolet” Banal with his arms wrapped around Robredo’s shoulders and his face leaning toward hers.

As to whether this shows a close-but-platonic friendship or an intimate relationship is subject to debate. Besides, I am generally liberal-progressive when it comes to these stuff, and I won’t really want to give this any color under normal circumstances. The operative word is “under normal circumstances”, because it’s Leni we’re talking about. We are talking about a woman who feels violated even with just a comment about her knees. That’s how demure she is.

Salita pa lang feeling violated na e, haplos pa kaya?

That is, how could Leni find a joke about knees anti-woman, but she finds physical contact with a married man okay?

A Happily Married Bolet Banal?

Banal, the owner of the arm and face in question, may actually be a married man.

Let me make this very clear: I do not give a shit about Leni's love life. But if she, as the vice president, acts like she's Our Lady of Naga, then we have a problem.

According to the Congressional Spouses Foundation (CSFI) roster of members, Banal is married to a certain Carmela C. Banal [CSFI]. Public databases suggest “C” stands for Cruz [Geni], which sounds just about right, as Banal owns Cruz-Banal Enterprises [ADMU].

The CSFI members’ roster does not show a date of publication. Note, however, that the roster mentions Violetta Reyes representing Marinduque Rep. Regina O. Reyes, who happens to have won as Congressman only once in 2013 (16th Congress) [ABS].

That is, Bolet Banal was still married as of June 30, 2013, i.e. when the 16th Congress commenced.

Leni, nakukumustahan man lang ba kayo ni Carmela?

No online records suggest that their marriage has been annulled at any point after that. However, a reliable source said the Banals remained married up to this day, with no hint of separation. The source is a friend of Bolet’s father whose name shall not be disclosed for security reasons.

Yes, it appears that Bolet already has a wife, yet he still does things like…

Is Leni a tad too close to this guy, or is he her hairdresser?

I do not really care about Leni’s personal life, but when she starts acting like some self-proclaimed moralist, she better be sure she practices what she preaches.
One big happy...wait di ba may asawa na yan?!
If Leni wants to ride the moral high horse, she better be sure that she stays on it. Unfortunately, that’s not happening right now with whatever’s going on between Leni and Bolet, her married “lifesaver”.

Seriously, Leni finds the Le-Knee comment offensive, but having a married man wrap his arms around her shoulders, lean his head toward hers, and caress her hair so casually... is totally fine with her?

Leni, huwag hipokrita. Hindi kami tanga. [ThinkingPinoy]

UPDATE 26 Nov 2016: And despite this, you know how she likes being called?

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I am categorically pro-RH, but I think it’s time to re-evaluate government policy because the only way to move forward is to actually move forward.

Ha? Ano raw? I’ll explain.

It’s time to understand the current situation and see what we can do to fix it.

(FEATURE IMAGE: A woman holding the controversial contraceptive Implanon. Image courtesy of the Valenzuela City Government.)

Let’s face it: a 30,000-peso monthly paycheck is barely enough for a family of five. Now, imagine if the breadwinner earns a half of that and the family is twice as big? Sadly, that’s the case of many Filipinos today because of limited access to birth control products, and the RH Law was enacted for this purpose.

If there’s one thing that I can give the Aquino Administration some credit for, it would be the passage of the Reproductive Health (RH) Law, more formally known as the Responsible Parenthood and Reproductive Health Act of 2012 [RA 10354].

The problem, however, is that as of today, it’s still nowhere near implementation because of legal roadblocks.

What the Supreme Court did

On 13 March 2013, the SC prohibited the RH Law’s implementation pending the judicial review. It was extended until the SC decided parts of it were unconstitutional. These parts were struck down [GMA].

And just when I thought it has been ironed out after that, another challenge popped up in June 2014, when a civil society organization challenged the constitutionality of the Department of Health’s decision to distribute contraceptive implants that can prevent pregnancies for up to three years. The SC TRO-ed the RH Law again [GMA].

The battle still rages two years later, well into the Duterte Presidency.

The contraceptives-in-question are Implanon and Implanon NXT, which we will collectively call “Implanon” because they’re essentially the same thing.

I'll describe the current situation then explain what we can do to fix it.

The Supreme Court issued a Temporary Restraining Order (TRO) that prevents [SC 2nd Div]:

DoH from issuing new registrations and recertifications of all RH products.
DoH from having anything to do with Implanon.

Note that the TRO I used as reference [SC 2nd Div] was issued on June 2015, but it’s basically the same TRO that’s being rehashed from 2014 to present.

Oo, two years and at least four million new Filipinos later, pinag-aawayan pa rin.

What can we do?

Judging from the TRO’s contents, there are two core issues:

The constitutionality of all RH products
The constitutionality of Implanon

Obviously, the key to overcoming this hurdle is showing that the two are constitutional.
THE FIRST ISSUE, the constitutionality of all RH products, is relatively easy to argue. That is, the Philippine SC has cited Griswold vs Connecticut [PBS] in a few decisions, including Gamboa vs PNP, and Ople vs CoA. This suggest that they generally agree to it. Griswold vs Connecticut.

Griswold vs Connecticut is a United States SC decision which says that despite the presumed unconstitutionality of contraceptives, a couple’s right to marital privacy is more important so the government cannot deny them access to contraceptives.

Basically, Griswold vs Connecticut explains our right “na hindi pakialaman ng gobyerno.”

This leaves us with the second issue: the constitutionality of Implanon.

What is Implanon?

Late into Aquino’s term, Health Sec. Janet Garin announced that her department will procure hundreds of thousands – if not millions – of Implanon for distribution throughout the country.

A single Implanon shot, good for three years, is worth ~$800 [Drugs] or ~₱40,000 [Goog]. Garin got it for just ₱500 apiece, thanks to a subsidy from the Gates Foundation [ABS].

Garin has procured 400,000 units so far, worth ₱200-m. However, due to the June 2014 SC prohibition that’s active up to this day, these contraceptives are basically rotting in Department of Health (DoH) warehouses. If the TRO is not lifted before 2018, ₱200-m of taxpayers’ money will just go to dust [ABS].

Medyo malabo kasi nga talaga ‘yung Implanon. Tara’t ipapaliwanag ko mga friendships.

Implanon is a contraceptive, i.e. an RH product, so if we can win on the first issue using Griswold vs Connecticut, then that would also apply to Implanon, right?
Not exactly. [Article II Section 12 of the 1987 Constitution] specifically says:

”The State… shall… protect… the life of the unborn from conception.”

The keyword here is “CONCEPTION”, i.e. the beginning of life.

The problem? RH opponents argue that Implanon is an abortifacient, or an abortion-inducing product.

What exactly is Implanon?

Implanon is a matchstick-shaped device that contains a pregnancy-preventing hormone. It is implanted beneath the skin of the upper arm, and it successfully prevents pregnancies for around three years [UWisc]. It is an extremely effective birth control method, arguably safer and more effective than natural (e.g. rhythm, calendar) or mechanical (condoms, IUDs) methods.

Upon subdermal insertion, Implanon has three effects on a woman’s body:

Drastically decreases likelihood of ovulation, i.e. virtually no egg cells made
Thickens cervical mucus, i.e. makes sperm less likely to reach egg
Changes the uterine lining. i.e. makes it harder for a fertilized egg to attach to the uterus

And here’s where the constitution gets in the way. Do you still remember the keyword I mentioned before?

Conception, or the beginning of life.

Egg cells and sperms cells, on their own, are not human beings per se because otherwise, that’d mean any man who has masturbated at least once in his life would be liable for genocide, and any woman who has menstruated would be liable for murder.

That’s just crazy.

Hence, the first two effects are non-issues, as they happen BEFORE conception, or BEFORE the beginning of life.

The problem is with the third.

Implanon, the Embryo, and “Technical Abortion”

The legal issue is in Implanon’s third effect:

Implanon changes the uterine lining. i.e. makes it harder for a fertilized egg to attach to the uterus.

In the off chance that a woman still manages to ovulate despite Implanon, plus the off chance that a sperm reaches it, the embryo will find it difficult to attach to the uterus because Implanon makes the uterus “slippery”.

And where does the embryo go to? Straight out of the vagina, and that’s abortion. Technically, at least.You see, after fertilization happens, the “thing” starts cell division by Day 2[UNSW], while moving from the fallopian tube to the uterus. Implantation of the embryo onto the uterus starts on Day 6 at the earliest and lasts for 12 days [EHD].

That is, a human being has been “conceived” by Day 2, and it will not survive past the first three weeks because Implanon makes the uterus too slippery for implantation to happen.

And that’s why Implanon is likely to be declared unconstitutional, because it technically kills the embryo.

Yes, I have reason to believe that the DoH’s ₱200-million Implanon stockpile may never get out of the warehouses.

But there’s a way to move forward.

Let’s compromise

Let’s go back to the TRO that’s active up to this day. Pro-RH camps have called for its lifting just this month, but to no avail [Star].

I believe that the TRO in effect is too far-reaching. Instead of just banning Implanon, it basically banned everything in the market.

Parang may isang noisy lang sa klase tapos lahat ng estudyante, pinalo.

And this is where I think there’s an opportunity.

I believe that Implanon is the core issue that prevents SC from lifting the TRO. However, as I have explained, all other non-abortifacient RH products (e.g. personal lubricants, sex toys, whatever), can be declared constitutional per Griswold vs Connecticut.

In short, pro-RH camps can request the Supreme Court not to lift the TRO, but to AMEND it.

Implanon lang naman ang problema e, so Implanon na lang ang ibawal, wag lahat.

This way, we can move forward with the RH Law’s implementation sans Implanon, then let government lawyers fight their way to show Implanon is OK.

The Implanon legal battle will take a while to settle, but we can at least move forward with everything else.

Garin may have good intentions, but even the best intentions are not enough without foresight.

Yes, Garin will be in hot water because it will appear that the government would tacitly admit Implanon’s unconstitutionality, but it’s in the public’s best interest to gain greater access to RH products as soon as possible.

Fine, stop Implanon, but don’t stop everything else. That’s what I am saying. [ThinkingPinoy]

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When I wrote “[TP: Oplan Lambat-Sibat: PNP admits ‘doctored’ crime stats]”, I showed how the Aquino-era police force fudges crime statistics to make it look our streets are safer, despite the contrary. In the last part of the article, I lamented, “To verify Oplan Lambat-Sibat’s ‘scientific reports’, we need raw, unadulterated data that cover months’ worth of crime reports. Perhaps, that’s something that only (Former DILG Sec.) Mar Roxas knows.”

Since god-knows-when, secrecy and inaccessibility of government information has been a source of frustration for investigative bloggers like me. So just imagine my delight when then-Camarines Sur Rep. Leni Robredo filed a powerful Freedom of Information Bill, which would afford any citizen access to government records. Unfortunately, fortitude is not one of Leni’s virtues, as she [TP: crippled her own bill to satisfy her Liberal Party overlords], led by then-President Benigno “Noynoy” Aquino.

With Freedom of Information (FoI), regular citizens can request for government documents, allowing them to learn more deeply about how the government works. Unfortunately, FoI has been stuck in the legislature since time immemorial, and despite President Rodrigo Duterte’s May 2016 win, the best he can do is certify the bill as urgent, but the buck stops at the Senate and the Lower House.

But that didn’t stop the current administration to finding a way to get around it.

Duterte’s Workaround

Duterte, being the Dyosa of Finding Ways to Move Forward, managed to get around this legislative issue. As Chief Executive, he issued Executive Order No. 2 [EO 2 s. 2016], which is basically a Freedom of Information Law that covers the entire Executive Branch.

Per EO 2 Section 3:

“Access to Information. Every Filipino shall have access to information, official records, public records and to documents and papers pertaining to official acts, transactions or decisions, as well as to government research data used as basis for policy development.”

Note, however, that EO 2 is not absolute, as it comes with several exceptions, per EO 2 Section 4. These exceptions usually affect documents whose public release will affect national security, or the effectiveness of government policy, among others.Duterte issued EO 2 in the first month of his presidency, and compiling the exceptions took a few months. Fair enough, I said, so I waited.

But the (relatively) long wait is over!

FoI Launched

In a formal ceremony held yesterday, Presidential Communications Operations Office (PCOO) Sec. Martin Andanar finally launched the Freedom of Information Portal, called eFoI, which makes it easier for regular citizens like us to access government information.

OFFTOPIC 1: I was actually invited to attend the event but I was too exhausted with TP-related stuff, so I asked PCOO to send me a copy of Andanar’s speech plus the reading materials they gave away during the event.

Andanar said, “Power always has to be kept in check; power exercised in secret, is doubly dangerous. The Freedom of Information is the key to a balance of power between the government and its citizens.”
While the Executive FoI is limited to the executive branch, Andanar noted that the Legislature is already working on it.

Andanar said, “The Senate… has passed the FoI at the 17th Congress… The House of Representatives (is now conducting) committee hearings... We look towards a day where the Freedom of Information will be an Act and not just an Executive Order.”.

OFFTOPIC 2: And by the way, I also heard rumors that traditional media outfits ranting because they weren’t invited and I told myself, “Buti nga sa kanila! (Serves them right!). The entire ceremony was livestreamed anyway, so why would they need to be there? It’s not like the ceremony in itself is controversial. Their rant stems not from not being invited: it stems from their bruised bloated egos.

How to use FoI

The “old-school” way of using FoI is messy because it involves paperwork. With eFoI, however, we can invoke FoI and request documents online.

STEP 1: Create an eFOI Account

This is not very different from creating an email account, except that you’ll be required to a upload a proof of identification. A photo of any government-issued ID will do.

STEP 2: Click “Make a Request”

You’ll be asked to select an agency that will respond your FoI request. Currently, there are 15 agencies to choose from but this list will be expanded. If the desired agency is unavailable and you can’t wait, you can file a paper-based FoI request at the PCOO office in the New Executive Building within the Malacanang Compound (Gate 2).

STEP 3: Fill in details.

You’ll be asked for the “Title of Document”, “Coverage or Time period”, “Intended Purpose”, and an optional “Personal Message”:

"Title of Document" doesn’t have to be very exact, but it should be descriptive enough to allow the agency to understand what exactly you’re looking for.
"Coverage or Time Period" refers to the dates covered by the document requested.
"Intended Purpose" can simply be “Research” or if you want to be more specific, feel free to write whatever you want.
"Personal Message" may be instructions or additional information that can help the agency process your request more quickly.

STEP 4: Wait for a Reply

All replies shall be sent fifteen (15) working days after the receipt of the request. The agency will be sending a response, informing of an extension of processing period no longer than twenty (20) working days, should the need arise [FoI Manual]. For eFoI requests (online requests), the government will reply via email.

Duterte requires executive agencies to comply with FoI requests. Violators will be suspended on the 2nd offense, dismissed on the 3rd [FoI Manual]. Moreover, Duterte also ordered that there shall be “a legal presumption in favor of access to information”, so it is the government agency’s responsibility to prove that you are not entitled to the requested data, as opposed to you having to prove that you are entitled to it [EO 2 s. 2016, Sec 7].

STEP 5: Get Data

After approval, the government will give you a link that leads to the information you requested. You can share the link, including the document, to anyone. Isn’t that neat?!

With that said, I think it’s important that you check pending requests before sending a request of your own, because we do not want the government to get swamped with multiple requests for the same thing, as one approved request is enough for everyone to access the same piece information.

You can check the list of pending, approved and denied requests at the Requests Tab of the eFoI site.

What specific documents can I request?

Oh, here’s where things get REALLY pretty! Here are some examples where FoI can be used.

First, on the DAP Controversy

You can request for the cash releases made under the Aquino administration’s unconstitutional Disbursement Acceleration Program.

From what I know, Aquino signed almost 2,000 Special Allotment Release Orders (SAROs) [MT] so we can’t really expect the government to give us each one of them. However, we can simply ask for an MS Excel file listing each SAROs control number, beneficiary, purpose, date of release, etc. Afterwards, you can send a supplementary request for specific SAROs that looks particularly fishy.

Second, the Mamasapano Massacre

You can also request for the release of records of conversations that ensued during the Mamasapano massacre. I am not sure of the government will grant such a request as it may fall under the exceptions, but it is worth a try. This way, we can get a better idea of how PNoy exactly bungled the operation that led to the deaths of 44 policemen.

Third, the Kidapawan Carnage

Remember 01 April 2016 when the government opened fire on starving farmers in [TP: Kidapawan]? I plan to use the eFoI portal to access not only the Department of Agriculture documents related to the bungled El Niño efforts, but also the President’s itinerary for the week immediately following that fateful day. I want to understand why Noynoy failed to immediately issue a statement, i.e. why Noynoy Noynoy-ed. I will also want to know why the PNP awarded the policemen involved in the incident, despite the incident still being under investigation.

Ah! My heart is racing! I cannnnnot!

These are just some three of the potential applications of the new eFoI portal.

Oh, wait! We can also request for NBI’s records during Matobato’s stay in the Witness Protection Program. Let’s see what he told the NBI back then, then compare his statements what he said during the recent Senate Hearings. Wouldn’t that be awesome?

Oh, and the Yolanda Funds. Oh my god, I can’t breathe with all this excitement!

Do you have a particular issue that you want to investigate? Leave a comment on my Facebook Page at Facebook.com/TheThinkingPinoy!You can also check the FoI portal at Foi.gov.ph!

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An LSU-Ozamis school administrator makes a fool of himself in the most dazzling manner possible.

On 28 November 2016, La Salle University – Ozamiz City (LSU-Ozamiz) issued a memo to its students, faculty, and staff. I re-type the memo and it’s as follows:

La Salle University

Ozamiz City

Urgent Actions on the Advocacy for Human Rights

We received a letter from our Auxiliary Visitor, Br. Jose Mari Jimenez FSC, in line with De La Salle Philippines call to take a heroic stance and proclaim our commitment to build a nation that protects human rights.

In line with this, DLSP member schools are to implement the DLSP-Network Programs for Sustaining the advocacy for human rights.

All LSU students, faculty and staff ARE TO WEAR BLACK (tops) every Tuesday, starting tomorrow, November 29th, 2016 until March 2017, to show solidarity with the victims of EJK and Martial Law.

Approved:
(SGD) Ms. Charm Femae L. Mendoza, RGC
Vice-chancellor for Lasallian Mission

The letter was okay, except for the last paragraph.

After discovering this letter, I wrote a 29 November 2016 post addressed to LSU-Ozamiz:

Dear La Salle University- Ozamiz City,

Forcing your students, faculty, and staff to wear black for such a cause is tantamount to usurping their political right to have their own opinion, which goes totally contrary to your purported aim of protecting human rights.

I also find it disconcerting that such a directive comes from a school that's right smack in the middle of the city where Bilibid drug lord Herbert Colanggo -- through his extended family, the Parojinogs -- lorded over (http://bit.ly/2gGYTml).

The actions suggested in the letter would have made a greater impact if your zeal for human rights also applied to those that your druggist local politicians victimized.

Too bad it isn't.

Lovingly Yours,
TP

I further discovered the same memo is published on the school’s official website [LSU].LSU-Ozamiz presumably missed (or ignored) my November 29th post because a day later, its Facebook administrator posted a status message that reads [FB]:

Come to think of it.. (sic) We aren't doing anything different, teaching anything different.

People put their children in La Salle because they want us to help them to teach their children to be grateful for what God has given them, to think critically and outside the box, to question the status quo when needed, to treat people kindly and respectfully and to fight for truth and the sanctity of life.

That's the very reason why we're wearing black.

That's why we're on the streets.

If you believe that education should not be about truth, justice, kindness and respect, maybe we're not the right school for you.

#MarcosNotAHero
#LiveLoveLaSalle

To which, I replied [FB]:

Dear La Salle University- Ozamiz City,

Unless you have your own version of English, saying that your students, faculty, and staff "are to wear black" in line with the #MarcosBurialProtest means they are REQUIRED to wear black.

Contrary to your aim of helping your students "think critically and outside the box", the directive actually forces them to be subservient to authority out of fear of being admonished for having political beliefs that may be incongruent to that of the school administration.

You're lucky because the Anti-discrimination Bill did not pass in the 16th Congress, but "Nulla poena sine lege" doesn't mean it's all good.

When educators believe that they have a monopoly on the truth is the same time an education institution fails its mandate to educate.

I disagree with your claim that you are not doing anything differently.

Many students from De La Salle University - Taft and De La Salle Santiago Zobel School did wear black, but the school only "REQUESTED" them to do so. They did not force their students to do their bidding, unlike what you did to yours. These two sister schools of yours respected their students' right to their own beliefs, something that you failed to do to yours.

Now, if you actually meant "are requested to wear" when you said "are to wear", then maybe that school really isn't the right one for anyone, especially those who want to learn English.

Lovingly Yours,
TP

Today is 02 December 2016, and LSU-Ozamiz has yet to issue a statement regarding the matter.

Things get interesting

But here’s the fun part. A certain Facebook user named “Jarjar Binks” issued an ad hominem-riddled rebuttal to my statement. Well, it’s not a rebuttal per se, because he did not address any of the core issue raised in my letter. Instead, he fixated on the line:

“You're lucky because the Anti-discrimination Bill did not pass in the 16th Congress, but "Nulla poena sine lege" doesn't mean it's all good.”

I have a self-imposed policy of not attacking private persons on my Facebook wall (I try my best), but a closer look at Jarjar Binks’ profile shows that his Facebook URL is https://www.facebook.com/noel.alamin.

But as it turns out, "Noel Alamin" is LSU-Ozamiz’ Political Science Program Head, who also happens to possess a law degree [LSU].

Yes, Jarjar Binks a.k.a. Noel Alamin is an LSU-Ozamis school administrator.

Alright, I won’t spare this idiot. THIS WILL BE FUN.

LSU-Ozamiz Prof. Noel Alamin's Rebuttal

Now, here’s the pseudo-rebuttal he wrote [FB]:

Dear La Salle University - Ozamiz,

Kindly ask (un)Thinking Pinoy what Anti Discrimination Bill he/she was referring to when he blabbered in his/her FB page that LSU-Ozamis is lucky the Anti Discrimination Bill did not pass during the 16th Congress. And if it is not too much to ask kindly tell him also to cite the particular provision of the bill which would have penalized Lasalle had it been passed into a law.

Did TP mean the Anti Discrimination Bill on the Basis of Sexual Orientation and Gender Identity or Expression (Sogie)? The Anti Discrimination against Ethnicity? The Anti-Age Discrimination Bill was passed into law May of this year so that`s out of the equation. (un)Thinking Pinoy can`t also be referring to the Comprehensive Anti Discrimination Act of 2016 because it was filed during the 17th Congress, specifically on August 1,2016 and already with the 17th Congress.

So, unless TP thinks that your memo to ur staff and students to wear black is discriminatory against (ethnicity, gender and sexual orientation in which case anyone with half a brain will know otherwise) then there really is no reason for you to stress over comments coming from a troll account who filters inquiry which would expose his idiocy!

I am asking you this because i took the pains of waving my magic wand to make him answer the above mentioned question given my very limited knowledge of law. Pero waley,denelete nya comment ko ng bongang bonga! Muntikan na akong ma intimidate sa latin maxim ni TP to wit: "Nulla Poena Sine Lege"un pala for show lang ang iklavosh!

Hui Thinking Pinoy, don`t me nga!

Lovingly yours,

Jarjar Binks

Oooh, I'm excited!!!

LSU-Ozamiz Prof. Noel Alamin's "Points"

Let’s list the issues in his letter one by one.

[1] Which Anti-Discrimination Bill I was talking about.
[2] Which part of that bill is relevant to LSU-Ozamiz’ dress code issue.
[3] On whether "nulla poena sine lege" is just a filler.
[4] On whether I deleted his comment or not.

Now, let me address those issues one by one.

Oh dear. Hindi lang pala English ang issue ng LSU-Ozamis, pati Political Science din yata.

First, which Anti-Discrimination Bill

Alamin asked what Anti-discrimination Bill I was referring to. He further attempted to be cute by attacking strawmen when he mentioned the Anti-Discrimination Bill on the Basis of Sexual Orientation and Gender Identity or Expression (SOGIE) filed by Senators Hontiveros and Villanueva on 01 August 2016 [Senate]. He also mentioned other bills which are totally irrelevant to political persecution, but I think I’ve already made this point clear.

LSU-Ozamis' own PolSci head doesn't know what went on in the Senate

Professor Alamin, the Anti-Discrimination Bill in question is the Anti-Discrimination Act of 2014 [SB 2122] penned by Sen. Bam Aquino and filed on 12 February 2014, or during the 16th Congress [Senate].

The full title of the bill reads:

AN ACT PROHIBITING DISCRIMINATION ON THE BASIS OF ETHNICITY, RACE, RELIGION OR BELIEF, POLITICAL INCLINATION, SOCIAL CLASS, SEX, GENDER, SEXUAL ORIENTATION, GENDER IDENTITY, GENDER EXPRESSION, CIVIL STATUS, HIV STATUS AND OTHER MEDICAL CONDITION AND PROVIDING PENALTIES THEREFOR

Yes, there’s a part there that says “POLITICAL INCLINATION”.

Political Science Professor Noel Alamin, your ignorance of political events is not my problem, but when your ignorance affects the youth, that’s another story.

Second, the relevant provisions

Given your ignorance of things that you should be familiar with as a law degree holder and as an LSU-Ozamis Political Science Professor, I think it’s safe to say that you still need a bit of spoonfeeding, so let me do that.

SB 2122 Section 2(i) states:

“Political inclination” refers to a person's preference with regards to membership or belief in a particular political party, organization or ideology.

Now, Section 4 states:

“Discrimination that is indirectly or directly based on the actual or perceived… political inclination… is prohibited.”

Now, Section 5(b) states:

“It shall be unlawful to deny a person enjoyment of political… rights based on the grounds referred to Section 4.”

At this point, I hope that your brain can already connect the dots. However, because of my reservations about your competence as an educator, let me spell it out for you:

Through its policy of a mandatory anti-Marcos burial dress code, LSU-Ozamiz denies its faculty, students and staff their right to choose their political ideology. This policy infringes on the rights of those who do not (or have decided to cease to) give a shit about the burial, let alone those who may be Pro-Marcos.

If you, LSU-Ozamis Political Science Professor Noel Alamin, needs more spoonfeeding, just let me know.

Nietzsche once wrote, "He who fights with monsters should look to it that he himself does not become a monster. And if you gaze long into an abyss, the abyss also gazes into you."

I have reservations about your ability to digest that line, so let me water it down a bit:

Mr. Alamin, you do not fight a dictator by being a dictator yourself.

Third, on "Nulla poena sine lege"

Aquino’s SB 2122 didn’t pass in the 16th Congress, LSU-Ozamis cannot be punished for issuing a directive that violates it, in accordance with Nulla poena sine lege (Latin,“No penalty without a law”), which is a basic legal doctrine saying one cannot be punished for something that is not prohibited by law [Dana 2009].

And that is exactly why I said LSU-Ozamiz is “lucky because the Anti-discrimination Bill did not pass in the 16th Congress, but "Nulla poena sine lege" doesn't mean it's all good.” That is, just because a law against an act wasn’t enacted doesn’t mean violations of the law are alright.

The Philippine-made ILOVEYOU virus caused over US$8.7 billion in damages worldwide [Gazeta Edukacja]. However, there was no Philippine Law at the time covering this particular type of cybercrime, so the Justice Department dropped charges against programmer Onel de Guzman [NYTimes].

Yes, de Guzman couldn’t be sued, but creating the virus is not ok.

At kung hindi mo pa rin gets, let me restate the point:

Yes, LSU-Ozamiz cannot be sued for violating SB 2122, but dictating political beliefs on students is not ok.

Fourth, on whether I deleted your comment

You further accused me of deleting your comment sans proof that you actually posted one on the Thinking Pinoy Facebook Page. Note, however, that I cannot discount the possibility that your comment triggered my page’s automatic profanity filter, given your penchant for ad hominem attacks.

However, even if you indeed posted a comment as insipid as the one you posted on your own facebook wall, I am pretty confident that I will not delete it, because I like to be amused once in a while.

A thoroughly vapid comment written by an LSU-Ozamiz administrator in defense of LSU-Ozamis Policy? Why the hell would I let that pass? It's comedy gold!

Mr. Noel Alamin, you are the head of LSU-Ozamiz’ Political Science Department, and you also have a law degree. With those kinds of credentials come several expectations, expectations that you failed to meet, in light of your Facebook post-slash-rant.

Note that I have meticulously used the term “law degree” instead of “Attorney” or “Lawyer”, and by this point, I think that you already know why.

Now let’s recall what I said in my letter to LSU-Ozamis, I said that “...if [LSU-Ozamiz] actually meant "are requested to wear" when [it] said "are to wear", then maybe that school really isn't the right one for anyone, especially those who want to learn English.”

Let me add a little bit to that.

“I guess LSU-Ozamiz also happens to be the wrong school for Political Science.”

Oh, and for the love of all that’s good and holy, PLEASE DO NOT OPEN A LAW SCHOOL.

Now, in case you still don’t get it, let me spell it out for you:

Dear LSU-Ozamiz PolSci Dep't Head Noel Alamin, Ll.B., MPS,

Please do not let your ego write checks that your brain can’t encash.

Lovingly Yours,

TP

Oh! One last thing: "Bakit mo ako binlock?"

[ThinkingPinoy]

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If there's one thing that can describe PCIJ's latest SOCE-themed article series, it would be "KABISOTE".

I always try my best to make Politics funny and interesting for my readers, because politics and its periphery are an inherently very toxic subject matter and talking about it has taken a toll on me. So after a year of almost nonstop ThinkingPinoy, I decided to take a short vacation in Davao City. But just a few hours after landing in Durianland, I discovered that controversy after controversy erupted in Manila and I was like, "Heto na naman tayo! (Here we go again!)".

Among these burning controversies are a series of articles released by the Philippine Center for Investigative Journalism (PCIJ), controversial mainly because [1] the articles tackle election spending and [2] PCIJ has a reputation for in-depth investigative reports. And yes, I checked the PCIJ articles one by one, hoping to find something interesting. And yes, I found a few interesting bits, but they’re interesting for all the wrong reasons.

Let’s discuss the PCIJ articles one by one and to make this blog post easier to follow, let me first list down the articles-in-question.

Now, let's go.

Article 1: Excess Donations

In THE WINDFALL OF ELECTIONS: 13 bets, 4 parties raise P69-M excess donations, PCIJ investigated what the candidates for national-level positions did with their excess campaign contributions based on their respective Statements of Campaign Expenditures (SOCEs).

I was a bit iffy about this article from the onset because SOCEs are historically under-reported [Vera]. That is, a candidate who reports campaign expenses should fall under one of the following categories:

1. The candidate is incredibly stupid
2. The candidate is incredibly honest
3. The amount is incredibly negligible

Losing senatorial candidate Isko Moreno reported an excess of P50 million (P171-m contributions minus P121-m expenses). Comparing his expenses with Franklin Drilon’s P144-m and Hontiveros’ P99-m, I have a reason to believe that he did not deliberately underspend. As to where the P50 million went is anybody’s guess, and I feel that PCIJ is correct when they decided to raise their eyebrows when they received this information. Thus, Moreno is either incredibly stupid, or incredibly honest, or both.
What’s confusing for me, however, is their inclusion of other candidates in the same article, as all other candidates reported an excess of less than P5 million which, for a national-level campaign, wouldn’t really get any candidate anywhere. That is, their excess contributions fall under the third category, i.e. incredibly negligible.

Minus Isko’s P50-million, there’s really nothing interesting here. It appears that PCIJ simply tried to stretch the article so it’d pass as a feature piece. I found it thoroughly disappointing, as I had higher expectations in an article from a purportedly distinguished institution.

Si Isko Moreno lang ang problema tapos nandamay pa ng iba, para lang mapahaba ang article!

It’s also worthy to note that PCIJ said it “tried to contact the candidates and parties who had reported unspent amounts to find out what they did with the money… One of those who has yet to reply is President Duterte...”

According to PCIJ’s data set, Duterte reported P3.5 million in excess campaign donations. In theory, excess donations should be declared as income, so I guess that’s why PCIJ examined Duterte’s 2016 SALN, which shows an P500,000 increase, or P3 million short of the expected amount.

However, a simple Google search with the keywords “Duterte Excess Donation” [Goog] leads to a May 2016 [Philstar] report indicating that Duterte returned the unused sums to the donors, which the newspaper said was “the first time excess funds were returned to contributors”.

Surely, the supposedly prestigious organization could have pointed that out. But it didn’t.

Alam na ng taong sinauli na ni Duterte ang pera... maliban sa mga taga-PCIJ.

Article 2: SALNs vs SOCEs

The article “PUZZLING PERSONAL SPENDERS: SALNs and SOCEs of some bets don’t add up” really puzzled me.

Aside from Roxas and Marcos, whose out-of-pocket expenses are P18 million and P9.8 million respectively, the other presidential and vice-presidential expenses shelled out negligible amounts (less than P1 million) from their personal coffers, but PCIJ still decided to include other candidates in the chart.

I don’t know if it’s just me, but what’s more puzzling is the fact that Leni was not on the table.
Sure, Leni could have claimed that she spent none of her own money for the campaign, but would anyone buy that excuse? Seriously, not even a single peso?

And do you still remember when she said, "Very creative nga 'yung aking mga volunteer. Kung anu-ano 'yung naiisipan. 'Yung fundraining dinner na for me, siguro mahigit lima at malaki talaga 'yung nakukuha sa mga fundraising dinners.“?

Ain't that neat? Too neat?

Would it have been wiser for PCIJ to explore Robredo’s case, considering that the P418 million she spent dwarfs winning presidential candidate Duterte’s 371 million, despite the fact that she is just running for VP?

May pilit bang sinusunod na SOCE theme ang PCIJ kaya kahit mas mahalagang anggulo e dinedma na lang nila... Or was there a directive from “higher-ups” to avoid mentioning anything too negative about her?

ARTICLE 3: Only 830 Filipino Bankrollers

In CAMPAIGN FINANCE AND THE 2016 ELECTIONS: Donors, Inc.: Only 830 Filipinos bankrolled poll bid of 5 prez bets, PCIJ explained that a woefully small number of Filipinos funded the vast majority of presidential campaigns. I actually concede to that, and I myself am disturbed by this fact.

PCIJ suggested that a candidate who relies too much on the contribution of too few is a “captured candidate”, which means he or she is more likely to be beholden to the interest of his or her small group of wealthy benefactors.

Even I agree with that, especially in light of the public knowledge that Grace Poe enjoyed the blessings of Marcos crony Danding Cojuangco [TP: Coco Levy], a major figure in Poe’s social circle [TP: Connection]. PCIJ then went on to list the biggest contributors of each major presidential candidate, then it quickly analyzed the numbers without regard to the nuances of each of their campaigns.

For such an organization, this is disappointing, to say the least. To say that there are only “830 Filipino Bankrollers” based solely on the SOCEs is lazy journalism. SALNs cover only the campaign period that started a few weeks after the dawn of 2016. However, actual big-ticket spending started way before that.

Tingnan mo lang si Roxas, Binay, at Poe: hindi pa kampanyahan, nakaubos na ng pinagsamang P2 billion!

Take TV, radio, and newspaper ad spending in 2015 as an example, where Mar Roxas spent P774 million, Binay P695 million, Poe P694 million, and Duterte P129 million [MT]. Here’s a table that neatly compares the said figures vs SOCE (campaign period) spending:

Looking at this table, would it be reasonable to say that “only 830” bankrolled the candidates when a vast majority of the big spenders spent the vast majority of their funds before the campaign period even started, i.e. before the period that SOCEs cover?

PCIJ is mostly technically correct when it said only 830 bankrolled the candidates during the campaign period, but how useful is that information when the fact of the matter is a vast chunk of total election-related spending are not included in the SOCE’s anyway?

Cayetano’s P71-m

Moreover, it’s interesting that VP candidate Cayetano was cited as having donated P71 million which PCIJ called “substantial”. PCIJ described the donation as in the form of “tandem advertisements”.

Here's one of those "tandem ads"

PCIJ conveniently failed to define "tandem ads" as “Duterte being mentioned in Cayetano political ads”. This would not have made much of an issue if not for the fact that PCIJ essentially insinuates that Duterte hitching on Cayetano pol ads makes Duterte more likely to turn into a “captured candidate”.

This theory is problematic at best as the Cayetano camp would probably agree that it’s Cayetano who needs Duterte’s endorsement more than the other way around. That is, while Cayetano had the money, it was Duterte who had the star power. I voted for Cayetano, and I am very well aware of that fact.

Totohanang usapan lang ha: utang na loob ba ni Duterte na lumitaw sa commercial ni Cayetano, o kailangan talaga ni Cayetano na ma-endorse ni Duterte?

So would that P71 million really make Duterte beholden to Cayetano? I do not think so because that would’ve implied that the Marcos Burial wouldn’t have happened [TP: Cancel Burial], as Cayetano is against the Marcoses [CNN].

I think PCIJ, with its resources and connections, has been very lazy lately.

Independent Micro-contributions

PCIJ said “contributions amounting to P10,000 and below reached a total of only P175,313, which is not even half of one percent of his campaign funds”. But why didn’t PCIJ even attempt to estimate “de facto micro-donations” that were integral in the Duterte Campaign but cannot be directly measured?

This issue becomes even more noticeable in light of the other PCIJ article “CAMPAIGN FINANCE OFFICE IN DRIFT, HEADLESS: P334M from only 13 donors funded Duterte’s presidency”

For one, PCIJ failed to take into account the countless number of Duterte shirts printed by volunteers who are not officially connected to the Duterte campaign [MS]? With a modest estimate of 1000 plain shirts per province times a production cost of P200 per shirt times 81 provinces, that would already amount to P16 million nationwide!

During the elections, regular citizens took the initiative to campaign for Duterte. PCIJ failed to take that into account.

And we're just talking about the T-shirts: we have not even included the Duterte ballers, the tarpaulins, and the costs of independent pro-Duterte grassroots groups.

This is my point: PCIJ unnecessarily limited campaign spending into what’s in the SOCE. However, in light of the Duterte’s unorthodox campaign, old definitions don’t apply anymore.

Has PCIJ been left behind by the times?

What is TP’s point?

PCIJ should take every effort to make sure that their articles describe reality as accurately as possible. However, judging from the gaping holes in this PCIJ SOCE series, it appears that PCIJ, who once had a reputation of engaging in out-of-the-box journalism, has become as dangerously bookish as the rest of traditional media.

Is the PCIJ’s SOCE series still useful in evaluating the status quo of Philippine elections?

Maybe, but not to a degree that’s expected from an organization of this caliber.[ThinkingPinoy]

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"The Philippines is now safer from theft, carnapping, robbery, physical injury, and rape."

This is the statement of Presidential Communications Secretary Martin Andanar as the Philippine National Police (PNP) released figures showing index crime volume declined 25,673 to 55,391 in July-November 2016 period, from 81,064 a year ago.

Citing the said PNP report, Andanar said index crime rate went down to 31.67 percent in July to November this year as compared to the same period last year.
Index crimes are defined by the PNP as crimes against persons (such as murder, homicide, physical injury, and rape) and crimes against property (like robbery, theft, carnapping, and cattle rustling). �
Data showed crimes against property posted a significant slide to 42.48 percent, while crimes against person dropped 12.25 percent.

Overall, crime incidents continued to decline across the country since President Rodrigo Duterte assumed office.

PNP report showed crime volume had gone down 34,741 (12.44%) to 244,637 in July-November 2016 period as against 279,378 in the same period last year.

Secretary Andanar lauded the efforts of the PNP in fulfilling the election promise of President Duterte to solve rampant criminality.

"I am calling on the people to continue cooperating with the police to further bring down crime incidents in the country," the Presidential Communications chief added.

SOURCE: Presidential Communications Operations Office

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My friend Mocha Uson was kind enough to make me her plus-one when she attended the Malacañang Christmas Party held yesterday, December 20th. She and the Mocha Girls were invited to perform in the event. I went there as Mocha’s friend and not as ThinkingPinoy, so I took off my TP hat and watched everything from the point of view of an innocent bystander.

Unencumbered by the need to write anything about the event, I was able to observe everything that went on.

The President Arrives

The president arrived a couple of hours into the party, accompanied by his wife Honeylet Avanceña and his daughter Kitty, plus the usual horde that is the Presidential Security Group.

As he was walking towards the venue, I noticed something different in him.

I have personally seen the President on many occasions, starting in 2010 when I was still a budding journalist in SunStar Davao. I have also seen him in action in Beijing and in Singapore. He’s usually very accommodating and personable. His penchant for cracking jokes to lighten everyone’s mood has even gotten him into a bit of trouble [TP:Le-Knee].

This time, however, the usually jovial President was in a pretty bad mood. He wasn’t cranky or anything of that sort, but he wasn’t as outgoing as he is known to be.

This time, however, I felt like something’s off. There’s something in the back of that old man’s mind. Something that pisses him off enough that it actually showed.

The President’s Speech

His speech contained the usual elements that even I admit are starting to get old. There’s the advocacy for Federalism vis-à-vis the historical injustices against the Moro People. There’s the human rights issues vis-à-vis the war on drugs. The whole nine yards.

I have transcribed and subtitled a countless number of his speeches so I my reaction to this particular speech, as it was happening, was, “Okay, there’s nothing too spicy about this one.”

That is, until he ended it with:

“I may be ousted like the others but at least, I will assure you, mark my word: it will never be because of corruption. I will be ousted there, I will be forced out, because I was desperate(ly) trying to help and preserve the Filipino People. That’s about it.”

He delved on the ouster issue for several minutes, suggesting that there may indeed be a real threat looming in the horizon.

Of course, the president is a very important and very busy man, so it’s not as if I can just approach him right after the speech and ask, “Psst, Daddy D, anyare?”

But I have my own Plan B: I consulted with those who are in-the-know.

The Lead

I have managed to gain over 350,000 social media followers in the past year, some of whom happen to be occupying important positions in the government. Specifically, I have become acquainted with top-tier government officials who are more than willing to provide me with leads.

And a lead is what I got, and I got it from two unrelated sources: one is a high-ranking military official (MO), and the other is a high-profile legal counsel (LG).

Both sources told me on separate occasions that an influential religious group (IRG), widely believed to support Duterte, is actually hedging its bets because it wants to protect a member who happens to be drug-linked police general.

MO and LG said IRG also indoctrinated a high-profile Bilibid inmate, whose anger at Sen. Leila De Lima stems her extorting drug money not only to fund her senatorial candidacy but also to fund her lavish lifestyle. This is the same reason why de Lima was able to give Dayan a relatively ostentatious residence.

Both MO and LG independently confirmed to me that it’s not just Leila: many members of the Liberal Party are on the take.

Now, I am very careful when it comes to analyzing such information because of potential dezinformatsiya, or the tactic of disinformation aimed at undermining the official version of events [NYTimes]. In colloquial Tagalog, the intel community calls it “nangunguryente”.

However, I have reason to believe that at least one thing is true: that IRG has an interest in the illegal drug trade, as it’s the common denominator I got from my two sources.

That’s the lead I needed.

Let’s start.

First, it starts with the War on Drugs…

The War on Drugs is the root cause of LP’s bid for Duterte ouster. With the drug war, Duterte stepped on the foot of powerful people and organizations who benefit, whether directly or indirectly, from the illegal drug trade. These includes not only those who trade illegal drugs, but also those who receive the illegal drug largesse.

…whose targets may be benefiting powerful institutions…

As discussed earlier, Influential Religious Group (IRG) benefits from drug trade, but this kind of news is not really new, as it has been documented before in other countries with serious drug problems.

Narcolimosnas, or the flow of illegal drug profits to religious institutions in the form of charitable donations, is a widespread practice in areas like Mexico, where drug cartels thrive [ElPaso]. But it doesn’t end there. Narcolimosnas may actually be used for money laundering, with the US Government itself pleading to the Church to address this issue [Breitbart].
A good example of Narcolimosnas is when Mexican drug lord Javier Torres built a Catholic church in Culiacan, Sinaloa, Mexico [Borderzine].

Sinaloa? Yes, the headquarters of the dreaded Sinaloa Cartel, the same cartel that expanded operations to the Philippines in as early as 2013 [TP: 400 deaths]. And what does any multinational company do when it expands overseas? Adopt best practices from its headquarters.

Does the Roman Catholic Church in the Philippines or other major religious groups receive donations from drug lords?

I cannot definitively say for now.

However, the Diocese of Parañaque’s rabid opposition to the drug war (as evidenced by its morbid outdoor exhibit outside the Baclaran Church [ABS]) despite the lack of relevant evidence showing state-sponsored killings [TP: Destroy Duterte], should raise some suspicion. Moreover, the fact that its head, Bishop Jesse Mercado [CBCP], has an alleged history of swindling disaster relief funds [Catholic], brings that suspicion to a whole new level.

… and the Liberal Party.

I have reason to believe that many Liberal Party (LP) members fall into this category, as evidenced by the late Quezon Governor Rafael Nantes of Quezon, who alleged ran a drug transshipment point in his province [TP: Jesse Robredo]. Nantes was LP’s national treasurer during the 2010 Presidential Campaign, where LP bet Benigno “Noynoy” Aquino won.

Drugs flourished during LP’s occupation of Malacañang. Despite the rising drug problem, Aquino never mentioned it in any of his SONA speeches [TP: Aquino’s Priorities]. Besides, LP’s alleged links with the illegal drug trade is not really news, as I have explained in the July TP article “PNP Generals and PH Narcopolitics: Jesse Robredo’s murder holds key?”.
In 2012, Justice Sec. De Lima even issued new rules to immediately release drug suspects while their cases are under automatic review [Star].

A willful ignorance of the drug problem and preferential treatment for drug offenders: this best describes the Aquino Presidency’s stance on illegal drugs. And did I mention that Ozamis’ politician-druglords – the Parojinogs – are connected not only to the Liberal Party [Star] but also to the illegal drug trade [Inq]?

No wonder Sen. Grace Poe recently demanded that Sen. De Lima (LP) explain why drugs flourished during the latter’s DOJ stint [GMA].

It’s also interesting to note that today’s Commission on Human Rights Chair Chito Gascon was LP’s Director-General from 2009 to 2011. According to his LinkedIn Profile, he was “running [the] day to day affairs” of his party [LinkedIn].

Gascon has to be monumentally imbecilic if he didn’t know that his own treasurer could be a drug lord.

But in spite of my disgust for Gascon, I would still concede that he is far from stupid.

And let’s just be honest here: Duterte’s pro-poor policies have been torturing the Liberal Party since Day One [TP: Chef Duterte].

Duterte’s Ouster

On 17 September 2016, while he was turning over the latest still-undisclosed narco-list to the AFP , he said:

“Ibigay ko ito sa Armed Forces. Ito ang problema natin... I'm just saying that the ultimate warriors of the Constitution, to protect the people is the Armed Forces of the Philippines. So bahala na kayo… If it would outlast me, mawala ako nang bigla, hingin ko lang sa inyo to see to it that this country will not take a spin [GMA]”.

[TRANSLATION: I am giving this (list) to the Armed Forces. This is our problem… I'm just saying that the ultimate warriors of the Constitution, to protect the people is the Armed Forces of the Philippines. So I leave it to you… if it would outlast me, if I suddenly pass away, see to it that this country will not take a spin.]

Duterte said this in front of the AFP. He never said this in front of VP Leni Robredo of the Liberal Party, the woman who would take over his position should he prematurely lose the presidency.

Yes, it appears that Duterte finds a post-Duterte military junta more tolerable than another Liberal Party Presidency.

I guess we have a pretty good idea why.

Previous Ouster Attempts

Suffice it to say, Duterte’s War against Drugs is against the oppositionist Liberal Party’s interests and possibly, also those who indirectly benefit from the drug trade. And Duterte’s unwaivering anti-drug stance forces his opponents to fight tooth and nail to kick him out of Malacañang. Well, the opposition’s ouster plots are already a given: they have been at it since the old man won in May 2016:

First, there was “Plan B”, which Duterte thwarted through Mark Villar’s appointment [TP: Villar].

Second, there was “Plan ICC”, which was made unlikely because of ICC’s weakening per the withdrawal of South Africa [NPR], potentially followed by a mass withdrawal of other African states [NewsWeek].

Third, there was US intervention , which was made unlikely because Loida Nicolas-Lewis’ LP-leaning US-Philippine Society is too closely connected to Hillary Clinton who, in turn, lost the November elections [TP: Trump].

And just when I thought that LP has ran out of tricks up their sleeve, here they go again with yet another plan, a plan that may actually work if we, the Filipino People, do nothing.

Duterte’s 2017 Ouster: Leila, Leni, Lourdes, Loida, and the Liberal Party

But first, let’s talk about what this new plan could be, a plan that I shall call “Plan Q1 2017”.

There’s nothing special about this name, except for the indication that whatever that plan is, it should be put into effect in the First Quarter of 2017 for reasons that I shall disclose later in the article.

Plan Q1 2017 has five main players and they are:

FIRST, LEILA

Sen. Leila de Lima who serves as the lightning rod and whose pronouncements against alleged extrajudicial killings sparked international outrage that would make Duterte’s ouster more palatable for the international community.

SECOND, LP

The Liberal Party hierarchy provides the basic political machinery. LP can take care of all the ancillary support mechanisms during the ouster attempts, including grassroots mobilization.

THIRD, LOIDA

Billionaire Filipino-American Loida Nicolas-Lewis can provide the financial resources necessary to stage such a power grab. With a net worth of over $600 million [MorningNewsUSA], ₱ 1 billion ($20 million) should be a drop in the bucket for this woman… and Duterte himself accused her of plotting to overthrow him [BW]

FOURTH, LOURDES

Supreme Court Chief Justice Lourdes Sereno, an Aquino appointee, can provide time by unilaterally delaying the progress of Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos’ electoral protest case, something that may actually be happening right now. More on this on the next article

FIFTH, LENI

In the event of an ouster via People Power, VP Leni Robredo can legally serve as Duterte’s replacement, in light of the Supreme Court decision on Estrada v. Desierto [GR 146710-15] and/or Lawyers' League v. Aquino [GR 73748], where the High Court essentially recognized People Power as a legitimate method for removing a sitting president.

Now that we have the ingredients, it’s time to talk about the recipe. That is, let me explain to you how it exactly works.

How would these main players interact? How will they effect an overthrow?

Let’s talk about that in the next article to be released later tonight.

UPDATE: Here's Part 2: #OustDuterte: Leila, Leni, Lourdes, Loida, LP, and Plan 0117

[ThinkingPinoy]

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Let’s talk about what this new plan could be, a plan that I call “Plan Q1 2017”. In yesterday’s “#OustDuterte: Daddy D worries about a 1st Quarter Ouster Plot?”, I enumerated the five major players involved in this plot.

They are:

LEILA: Sen. Leila de Lima handles international opinion7
LP: The Liberal Party handles political machinery
LOIDA: Loida Nicolas-Lewis handles finances
LOURDES: Chief Justice Lourdes Sereno keeps “the enemy” at bay, and
LENI: Vice-president Leni Robredo serves as Cory Aquino 2.0, Duterte’s replacement.

You probably wonder: why Q1 2017?

Why should LP effect an ouster move in the first quarter of 2017?

Let me answer that.

Actually, calling the ouster plot Plan Q1 2017 is not very accurate, as that means the plan may take effect somewhere between New Year’s Day and the end of March. After some thought, I realized that if Plan Q1 2017 is to be implemented, it should be on the first half of January 2017.

For this reason, let’s rename Plan Q1 2017 to Plan 0117, where 0117 denotes January 2017.

Let’s ask a new, more specific question: why January 2017?

Why Plan 0117?

Why January 2017?

There are three reasons why an ouster plot should be complete by mid-January 2017.

First is international recognition.

Philippine Presidents can be constitutionally removed in three ways: resignation, death, or impeachment. The first two are out of the question, and after the old man appointed Mark Villar, impeachment is impossible at least up to 2019 [TP: Plan B].

Thus, Leni and LP are left with three extraconstitutional, extrajudicial options: [1] assassination, [2] coup d’état, or [3] people power (not that there’s much of a difference between [2] and [3]).
Should Leni and LP implement any of the three methods, the final result will be an extraconstitutional power transition, which would require the newly-formed government to seek international recognition.

And what’s the single biggest step towards international recognition?

Getting recognition from the United States.

However, Leni and LP’s political connections in the United States are largely confined within the Democratic Party led by US President Barack Obama and losing 2016 presidential candidate Hillary Clinton.

Thus, if Leni and LP will oust Daddy D, they will need to oust him while they are still in power. However, Obama is in power only until January 21, 2017 local time, as President-elect Donald Trump takes his oath of office at 12 NN EST, 20 January 2017 [Telegraph], or 1:00 AM 21 Jan 2017 Manila.

Second is BBM’s electoral protest.

The entire ouster plot rests on the assumption that Leni will succeed Duterte, but this won’t happen if Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos (BBM) replaces Leni per a successful electoral protest, and a closer look at the developments of the protest case doesn’t bode well for Robredo.

Per Presidential Electoral Tribunal (PET) Rules [A.M. No. 10-4-29-SC], there are 21 steps involved in hearing the electoral protest case. The ball started rolling pretty fast after BBM filed the case on 29 June 2016 [Star] and by August 17th, the case was already at Step 6 [BBM].

Now, step 7 is the part where the Supreme Court issues a Notice of Preliminary Conference. Four months after Step 6, the Supreme Court has yet to call for a preliminary conference.

Then everything stopped.
But who handles the scheduling for PET? Chief Justice Maria Lourdes Sereno, and I can see two major motives:

Lourdes is staunchly anti-Marcos. She even voted against the Marcos LNMB burial [GMA].
Lourdes is already losing her grip on the SC after nine justices denounced her machinations at the Judicial and Bar Council (JBC) [Interaksyon], and she’s about to lose it fully as Duterte appoints 10 justices from now until October 2019 [TP: SC Math].

By the way, Duterte is already about to appoint two: Justice Perez retired on 14 December 2016 [SunStar] and Justice Brion is set to retire on 29 December 2016 [Star].

Yes, a Duterte Presidency is bad for Lourdes, so Lourdes has to stall.

But she has been stalling for four months already, and BBM supporters – millions of them – are bound to notice really, really soon.

Third, the weather.

Sounds really stupid, but it really is an important factor.

Recall that Duterte can be ousted via assassination, coup d’état, and People Power. However, I think an assassination is out of the picture because the Presidential Security Group has a pretty good track record of keeping presidents alive. Thus, we are left with two: coup d’état, and People Power.A coup d’état is insufficient by itself because of the military and the police being largely loyal to Duterte. Will AFP Chief Visaya or PNP Chief Bato stage a coup? Of course not, so it’s going to be someone who’s not in the core leadership.

Why the loyalty? This.

Trillanes (or one of them drug-generals) do not exercise complete control over the military. That is, whoever minor general or officer stages a coup, he will not end up leading the military.

Here’s where People Power becomes the primary mode of ouster, with the coup d’etat serving a supplementary role. But People Power requires lots of people, and the only time you can mobilize people for days is when the weather is kind.

People Power can never happen from March to May because the demonstrators will die from heatstroke. It can’t be from June to October because of the rainy season (i.e. floods). And November-December is the Christmas Season: people are simply too busy with their own lives.

Yes, People Power is most feasible if held during the first couple of months of the year.

Plan 0117 Recipe

Now that we have discussed the “Why”, it’s time to talk about the “How”.

Step 1: Set a deadline

The key date is January 20th, which is Trump’s inauguration. If I were one of them ouster plotters, I will stage the People Power revolution just a few days after New Year’s Day. Remember that it takes several days for People Power to work, and several more days for the international community to react, so “finishing the process” several days before Obama steps down is crucial.

Just look at this meme that Silent No More posted on 20 December 2016 [FB].

Silent No More's December 10 2016 Facebook meme

As discussed earlier, the BBM electoral protest case, has been in suspended animation since September, so how in the world would the High Court rule on it if it hasn’t even conducted a preliminary conference?

More than anything else, this meme is an attempt at mind conditioning.

The page suggests that if something has to be done, it has to be done before 10 January 2017.

Step 2: Gain local legitimacy

After gaining international legitimacy, the next step would be gaining recognition from the Filipino Public. This is tricky for LP, as Duterte has maintained high popularity ratings [CCTV] despite the negative coverage from local and international media.

LP and the gang recently tried to drum up support for Duterte’s ouster by capitalizing on the Marcos Burial Issue [MT], but to no avail. It appears that Duterte’s Teflon Status [TP: BangkoSerye] is still in effect up to this day.

If real local support cannot be obtained, then the next best thing would be to use something akin to real local support, which brings us to…

Step 3: Mobilize People

Manileños are unlikely to join any LP-led People Power Revolution, because Manileños voted overwhelmingly in favor of BBM [GMA]. That is, if Leni wants a mass demonstration, she will need hakot crowds from nearby provinces… such as Laguna.

Earlier this month, Greco Belgica said VP Leni was in Laguna on 11 December 2016 and met with a certain Mayor at a golf course to ask help to gather people – hakot – for a rally they will stage [FB: Belgica].

I tried to verify Belgica’s intel, and I found out from an independent source that while a Jesse-Robredo-protégé-cum-Laguna-politico declined Leni’s request, many local politicos didn’t. Add hakot crowds from Bicol and elsewhere, and the numbers should be sufficient to stage a massive demonstration a la EDSA People Power.

Step 4: Gain Military-Police Support

I doubt that any People Power-esque demonstration will be successful, as that would require military and police defections, which are unlikely [TP: Martial Law].

Loyalty of the military and the police, however, may not be as iron-clad as pro-Duterte camps would hope. For one, the drug-linked PNP generals [Journal] may still command some loyalty, especially to low-ranking cops who benefitted from the drug trade.

More importantly, some AFP generals loyal to Aquino or the Drug Cartels may still switch sides.

Yes, Duterte did not link AFP generals when he announced the first drug list in July, but given how corrupt the government is pre-Duterte, what are the odds that more than a few generals, colonels, and majors, also partake of the illegal drug largesse?

That’s something that the Duterte Government may want to check on.

Oh, and did I mention the intel I got a few weeks ago [FB]?

“A source who belongs to a prominent group of active and retired military officers said a fallen lady cabinet member had two low key meetings with a former president, among others. One the other week, and the more secret one last week.

Source was already telling the others na may binabalak. Of course, our President has his sources too. It is a power grab trying to cite incompetence. They are trying to smear him and Dela Rosa. If you noticed, a lady senator's controversy is their smoke screen, and her fellow senator-ally is trying to drum up support in and out.

They have connections in the US Embassy, whose security officers are loyal to senator-ally. They are the ones feeding negative info and translations about PRRD.

Source said he/she got info that they are feeding info to international sympathizers. They are also trying to paint our president as a coddler of the corrupt and as the real crime and drug syndicate coddler. They are investing on PR firms. 2 big ones.

They are trying to set the stage for a people power and/or coup d'etat as the senator-ally, despite his infamy, still enjoys the loyalty of his classmates.”

Go figure.

Step 5: Gain International Recognition

Leila’s moves are already very well known. As a matter of fact, her actions since June 30th may already constitute a pretty strong case of inciting to sedition [TP: Sedition]. And to make sure that the international community never forgets LP’s international propaganda, the yellows even orchestrated a global anti-Duterte media blitz in the first week of December, as pointed out by my journalist-friend Krizette Chu [FB].

The alleged extrajudicial killings in the Drug War should be enough for a prospective Duterte overthrow to gain international legitimacy, i.e. the anti-Duterte propaganda likely puts the global public at a better position to recognize the legitimacy of whoever replaces the old man, i.e. VP Leni Robredo [TP: Chito Gascon].

The success rate of this ouster plot would’ve been better if Hillary won, as the Liberal Party-aligned Washington lobby group US-Philippines Society, where Loida is a director and Manny V Pangilinan is co-chair, identify as Democrats. Loida even donated to the 2016 Clinton campaign [TP: Trump].

Too bad Trump won.

But LP and the gang has gone this far, so I guess they still feel that the show must go on.

What can we do?

Assassination attempts are best dealt with by the Presidential Security Group (PSG) and the Intelligence Service of the Armed Forces of the Philippines (ISAFP). For prospective coup attempts, it’d be the AFP with the guidance of ISAFP. I am pretty confident that the government, by itself, can handle these two issues.

But not People Power.

I am not exactly sure how Leni will transport large hakot crowds from Laguna and Bicol. But if she somehow manages to assemble at least fifty thousand in Manila, then that will be a problem. The government has no way of effectively dispersing the crowd because of their sheer number. The government may also be accused of brutality as soon as it throws the first tear gas canister.

With this said, I call upon those against destabilization to be vigilant. Be on the lookout for any development from now until the end of January. Stay online and active on social media.

Should Leni and the yellow bleeding hearts stage a People Power Revolution, we will be left with no other option but to safeguard our collective political interests.

If Leni stages a People Power, let’s stage a bigger People Power.

I still do not know who will lead our counter-protest.

But if no one steps up, Mocha, Sass, and I will. [ThinkingPinoy]

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Earlier this month, Robredo said she “will not allow the Vice Presidency to be stolen [Inq].”

I am not exactly sure how the Vice-presidency could be stolen from her. Surely, no one would be stupid enough to launch a risky and costly coup d’etat just to “steal” a position with no power in it. But if Leni is talking about a potential loss in the Bongbong Marcos electoral protest case, then how can it be called “stealing”?

Will a prospectively adverse Supreme Court decision on the case be tantamount to stealing? Who is Leni to decide when “stealing” happens? Does Leni want to usurp the power of the judiciary too?

But I digress.

The word “stealing” is used with things that hold value, so Leni finds value in her position as VP. If being a vice-president is so valuable to her, why can’t she be a vice-president when it matters the most? Is Leni VP just for the bragging rights? Did she become VP just for the sake of having the position?

Because apparently, she is not too keen with the responsibilities associated with the position.

Leni and Typhoon Nina

The Bicol Region braces for the arrival of Super Typhoon Nina tonight. With winds of up to 135 knots (250 kph) [Navy], Nina's is, in some respects, comparable to Typhoon Yolanda, which had winds of up to 125 knots (230 kph) [Tokyo]. Yes, Nina can potentially annihilate entire cities, similar to how Yolanda erased the cities of Guiuan and Tacloban in 2013.
In preparation, the government has evacuated hundreds of thousands of Bicolanos to safer areas. The National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council (NDRRMC) is on heightened alert, while Social Welfare Sec. Judy Taguiwalo has activated response clusters to ensure close coordination and quick mobilization of assistance for communities likely to be affected by the typhoon [Star].

Yes, even on Christmas Day, the government is at work: no vacations, no days off, no R&R.

With the exception of Vice-president Leni Robredo.

Leni’s US getaway

Yesterday, two independent sources informed me that Leni Robredo recently entered the United States via New York City and is said to be planning to stay in the said country until New Year's Day. She also visited New Jersey and is currently "with family" in Pennsylvania [FB].

It's bad enough that her attack dogs Sen. Leila de Lima and Sen. Antonio Trillanes showed an appalling lack of delicadeza [MT, MT].
But for her to visit New York City, the same city where billionaire Fil-Am lobbyist Loida Nicolas-Lewis is based... That just screams "Scheming bitch!" for me [TP: Plan 0117].

Is orchestrating a power grab more important for Leni than actually helping those in the "laylayan"?

Millions of poor, innocent Filipino lives are at risk, while the country’s vice-president is too busy enjoying a White Christmas.

In defense, one of Robredo’s most ardent supporters argued that Leni went on a Christmas vacation in the United States because spending the holidays in Naga City brings back too many painful memories of the late Jesse Robredo.

That’s bullshit.

Leni’s Feelings

The "feelings alibi" won't fly.

First, Jesse died four years ago and Leni has already found a replacement in Congressman Bolet Banal [TP: Leni’s Frailties]. Besides, the entire Robredo family even spent Christmas Eve 2014 at Jesse’s grave. Just look at the screencap shown below.

Christmas Eve 2014

Second, are the personal feelings of an alleged vice-president more important than her mandate to serve the people or as the Liberal Party Youth puts it, her mandate to be the “mother” of this god-forsaken nation [KALIPI]?

After the storm has passed and thousands of homes have been destroyed, can she realistically tell Bicolanos, “Sorry, I had to attend first to my feelings before I can attend to you.”, or worse, "Sorry I can't be your leader today because I'm too heartbroken."?

Third and most importantly, why the United States? There’s Pili, Daet, Legazpi, Sorsogon, Virac, Tabaco… the list of cheaper (and wiser) alternatives goes on and on.

Leni' #Opulent Getaway

In her 2015 SALN, Leni declared a net worth of Php 8 million, with cash assets amounting to Php 10.3 million [Malaya]. Assuming a modest Php 1 million to cover her week-long family trip, does it mean that she is willing to throw away 12% of her net worth in the span of a week?

That doesn't sound very #Tsinelas to me.

Either Leni has terrible financial planning skills, or her trip was financed by someone else.

I know Leni isn't the sharpest tool in the shed: she flunked the Bar Exams [Inq], and she even showed her ignorance of the law [TP: SOCE], but I am inclined to believe that she cannot be that financially imbecilic, i.e. she probably got some financial help from someone else.

But if she indeed received travel perks, wouldn't that fall under the same category as PNP Chief Bato dela Rosa's Las Vegas issue [Inq]?

After January 1st, will Conchita be as busy as she was when Bato arrived from Vegas, or will Conchita play dead, like what she did on the de Lima drug case [Inq]?

Leni’s Tsinelas

Like what I said yesterday, I personally wouldn't have cared where she spends her holidays. But last time I checked, she's all for modesty of public servants, hence her #TsinelasLeadership PR stunt.

Leni in her #Tsinelas

Leni’s trademark #Tsinelas centers on modesty of public officials. How can she reconcile that with a Tri-state White Christmas in the US, while millions of those in the “laylayan” are at risk of death?

The hypocrisy is strong on this one. We were given an early reminder of that reality when a grenade exploded during a Christmas Eve mass in Midsayap, North Cotabato, hurting 13 [Star].

Duterte immediately visited the blast victims the following morning [ABS], offering financial assistance and lightening up their mood by cracking jokes. Duterte’s visit will not magically heal the wounded, but it will sure give hope not only to them, but also to the rest of the country who are in desperate need of it.

And where’s Leni? Too busy having a vacation on the other side of the planet.

Yes, I admit that the Office of the Vice-president has no real powers, except the power to replace Duterte if or when he dies, resigns, or is removed. However, isn’t it incumbent upon the vice-president to at least serve her ceremonial duties to the fullest?

If the only thing the VP can do is lift people’s spirits up, then why don’t she do it when it really counts?

No can’t do: Leni’s on vacay.

I don't know if it's just me, but if I fear losing something valuable, I will fight tooth and nail to show everyone I deserve it.

Leni, however, has better ideas on how to go about it. [ThinkingPinoy]

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My friends and I have talked about Leni Robredo since the time she rose to national fame after the death in 2012 of her husband, the late Interior Secretary Jesse Robredo. For the next couple of years, she established a reputation for having a modest lifestyle. Do you still remember the time when she ditched the SONA Red Carpet and entered the Batasan Pambansa’s session hall through the backdoor entrance?

Yes, that was the simple, meek, widow that is Leni Robredo. For years, I had a positive opinion of her.

That is, until I started my blog ThinkingPinoy, until I started looking harder into what have transpired in the past several years.

The First Red Flag

I started having suspicions about Leni’s qualifications as a government official when I first heard the rumor that she flunked her bar exams, a rumor that was verified after Leni admitted it herself in March 2016 [Inq].

While failing the bar is not the end of the world, I was never able to wrap my head around the idea that someone who aspires to be the second most powerful woman in the Philippines is not the sharpest tool in the shed.

When I chat with friends, I often explain my position on that matter by using an analogy.
I ask them, “If you need to undergo a major surgery, would you be okay with having a surgeon who flunked the medical board?”

They answer back, “Of course, not!”

Then I ask, “If the need new and better legislation, would you be okay with having a legislator who flunked the bar exams?”

They answer back, “Of course, not!”

Now, what if that legislator wanted to be vice-president?

Then an eerie silence.

Yup, there’s something wrong somewhere in this equation.

Leni’s Contradictions

Yes, I started to have my doubts about the Leni Robredo as painted by the media, so I revisited the SONA Red Carpet Incident that basically transformed a simple widow to a national symbol of humility. The story goes like this:

Leni used the backdoor entrance to avoid the attention usually accorded to politicians and celebrities attending the annual State of the Nation address. I can only surmise that Leni didn’t like the attention, the pomp, and the pageantry, and that she attended the SONA with a sincere objective of being the representative of the People and nothing more.

She purportedly didn’t like the attention, but she publicized a photo of the incident herself [FB].

Hates the attention, but craved for the attention?

Robredo’s own office bragged about her humility. Wow! that’s so humble of her.

Oh, and do you remember the viral 2014 Leni-taking-a-bus PR stunt? The Inquirer described the photo (shown below) as “taken by the lawmaker’s friend Keisha del Castillo last December 4, showed a woman waiting alone at a gas station in Magallanes, Makati City, donned in a striped shirt and denim pants and carrying two bags [Inq].”

Photo Courtesy of Leni Robredo's Chief of Staff (she literally took the photo)

As it turns out, this Keisha del Castillo is not only Robredo’s friend, but also her long-time staffer. Based on her [LinkedIn] account, del Castillo was Leni’s “Head Executive Assistant” at the time the photo was taken.

She then became Robredo’s Chief of Staff and eventually, the head of Private and Ceremonial Affairs Office under the Office of the Vice-president.

In short, Robredo’s own office bragged again about her humility, even going as far as creating a video about it two years later, for use as 2016 campaign material.

See no Evil: Campaign Planes

And do you still remember the Liberal Party’s campaign planes?

For someone who is allegedly espouses good governance, I cannot, for the life of me, understand how she could stomach riding Roxas’s campaign planes when they were owned and funded by illegal miner Eric Guttierez, the same illegal miner who cheated on his taxes, destroyed an entire town, and terrorized its townsfolk [TP: Campaign Planes].
But I am a political realist, so I have resigned myself to the idea that every politician lies and cheats… and the only thing that varies is the degree in which they do it.

Thus, until election election day, Robredo was my Number 2 pick. That is, if my primary bet Alan Peter Cayetano loses, I sincerely wished that she win instead.

And she won.

And she got worse.

Leni’s SOCE

Leni managed to raise my eyebrows when I found out that she spent P418 million during the 2016 campaign or about 30% more than the second-biggest VP spender Chiz Escudero [CNN]. And where did she get the money? She said she got it from “creative” volunteers, including a Lugawan [ABS].

That’s one hell of lugaw vendor if you ask me. From that ABS-CBN report, it appears that she has a very good idea as to where her campaign money came from, yet she still failed to file her Statements of Campaign Expenditures on time. To make matters worse, she even cited an obsolete Comelec resolution to justify the tardiness [TP: SOCE].

Yes, here’s a lawyer who doesn’t know the laws that apply to her.

But it still gets worse.

Leni’s Knee

Then came the Le-Knee incident, where she blasted the President for commenting about her knees.

“Tasteless remarks and inappropriate advances against women should have no place in our society. We should expect that most of all from our leaders,” Robredo told [CNN] a day after the November incident.

Yes, the humble and meek widow has metamorphosed into Our Lady of Naga.

But what I still fail to understand how Leni could find a joke about knees anti-woman, when she finds physical contact with a married man acceptable?

Robredo (L) with QC Rep. Banal

The man closest to her at the moment, Quezon City Representative Bolet Banal, is married.

This also begs the question, “Why still capitalize on the legacy of your dead husband when you seem to have a suitable replacement already?”

There’s a word for it: Hypocrisy.

But it gets worse.

EJKs and HUDCC

Just three weeks into the vice-presidency, Robredo started to decry extrajudicial killings allegedly committed by the Duterte Administration [Star]. She yakked about it month after month, and she still yaks about it up to this day [CNN]. Five months have passed since she first mentioned EJKs, yet she still fails to provide even an iota of evidence showing that these killings were state-sponsored.

President Duterte, probably out of exasperation, even went as far telling her on 17 December 2016:

“You can ask even one [of the government forces] if I ordered them to kill a person whose body was in a kneeling position and hands were tied at the back. Ask one of them. If someone says Duterte [ordered that], I will resign. I will resign tomorrow [SunStar].”

It has been ten days since Duterte unleashed that dare, yet Leni has yet to respond.

After her much-publicized resignation from the Duterte Cabinet, many of her critics (and there are lots of them) see Robredo as a NATO leader.

What’s NATO? It’s a colloquial acronym for “No Action, Talk Only”.

Why? Because a closer look at her purported achievements shows that its mostly made up of meetings, conferences, paperwork, and little else. Even the implementing rules and regulations of a small section of a 1992 Republic Act took her five months to draft [CNN].

Yes, it appears that Robredo suffers from the same illness Roxas had: Analysis Paralysis [IBTimes].

But then, there still was a small part of me that wanted to give her the benefit of the doubt. After all, she’s been in office of just five months.

Leni just had to have the right opportunity to show her capacity for action.

And that opportunity came.

And the opportunity’s name is Nina.

Nina and the "Mother of the Nation"

On 22 December 2016, [GMA] reported that Typhoon Nina (International Name: Nock-ten) was about to hit the Philippines, and that it was expected to make landfall on the Bicol Region – Leni’s own bailiwick – on Christmas Day. According to the report, Nina was anticipated to become a Category 3 Hurricane.

The United States National Hurricane Center describes a Category 3 Hurricane as:

“Devastating damage will occur: Well-built framed homes may incur major damage or removal of roof decking and gable ends. Many trees will be snapped or uprooted, blocking numerous roads. Electricity and water will be unavailable for several days to weeks after the storm passes [NHC].”

By 23 December 2016 (Manila), NASA’s Aqua Satellite showed Nina has intensified [Phys].

In preparation, the Duterte Government has evacuated hundreds of thousands of Bicolanos to safer areas. The National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council (NDRRMC) is on heightened alert, while Social Welfare Sec. Judy Taguiwalo has activated response clusters to ensure close coordination and quick mobilization of assistance for communities likely to be affected by the typhoon [Star].

Yes, even on Christmas Day, the Duterte Government is at work: no vacations, no days off, no R and R... while Leni did the exact opposite.

Despite all that’s happening, Robredo still decided to leave the country for a US vacation. Take a look at the following image taken at NAIA at 4:40 PM Friday, 23 December 2016.

Bon Voyage!

Like a thief in the night

This is the problem when a politician conducts too many press conferences: people notice bouts of deafening silence.

No, the US-bound flight was not part of an official trip, as Robredo’s official trips are very well-publicized ahead of time. This is a personal trip that Robredo herself knows is ill-timed.

This woman, my friends, is part of the group that calls for Duterte's resignation, the same group who's plotting his ouster [TP: Plan 0117]. The same woman who will become President should that call be heeded.

The same woman who loves to contradict herself.

Let’s recall a 20 October 2015 interview where she herself said:

“Most of our local officials… look at disaster risk management as mere(ly) being ready with relief goods when a disaster strikes. I painstakingly told them that this is so much more than this… The thing we’re doing now is more of a symbol than anything else. It is giving a message to the people that the government is there for them. I’ve been in the local scene for so long, my husband was mayor for so long, it is very important for local folks to see their government officials during and right after a disaster.”

Now, Robredo herself said “it is very important for local folks to see their government officials during and right after a disaster”.

Straight from the horse’s mouth.

And where was she while Nina was pummeling her hometown in Bicol? In the United States.

Leni left the Philippines last Friday knowing full well that she’s badly needed by Bicolandia. She left despite her full knowledge that she must stay.

In short, she left the Philippines for the United States… “like a thief in the night.” [ThinkingPinoy]

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A few days ago, the Manila Times reported that former US Ambassador to Manila Philip Goldberg outlined a strategy to oust the democratically-elected President Rodrigo Duterte from Malacañang.

Will the 18-month ouster plan work?

President Duterte on those plotting his ouster: I'll give you a good fight, I'll give you a bloody nose https://t.co/sDo55hwVGt pic.twitter.com/U8llYMMWpB
— CNN Philippines (@cnnphilippines) December 29, 2016

Goldberg’s strategy: a run down

The Manila Times described Goldberg’s “strategic recommendations” as follows:

Public Dissatisfaction: stoking public dissatisfaction with the President over unfulfilled election promises
International Isolation: isolating the Philippines from the rest of the ASEAN by extending military assistance to member countries except the Philippines
Economic Blackmail: limiting trade by some ASEAN member countries with the Philippines.
Liberal Party Funding: support for the Philippine opposition through aids and grants
Division: sowing discontent among the Duterte supporters
Political Disunity: cultivating the cleavage between the congressmen and the senators over the Charter Change issue

“Ambassador” Goldberg

Some may be inclined to dismiss MT’s report as a mere conspiracy theory. The problem, however, is that Goldberg has a history of undermining governments.

In 2007, the United States was accused of funding opposition to Bolivian President Evo Morales by providing opposition leaders and critical think-tanks with millions of dollars [MT] through its philanthropic arm USAID.

In 2008, Bolivian President Evo Morales declared Goldberg “persona non grata”.

Morales eventually expelled USAID from Bolivia in 2013[BBC].

Yes, Goldberg did something like it not too long ago.

Moreover, Duterte’s claim that US ambassadors are spies [CNBC] is not without merit, at least in the Philippine context.

Goldberg himself was the United States Assistant Secretary of State for Intelligence and Research (US DoS INR) from 09 February 2010 [USGov] until 14 February 2014 [US DoS].

If “Intelligence and Research” doesn’t scream “Spy!” to you, nothing else will.

And by the way, Goldberg was appointed Ambassador to Manila on 31 July 2013 [GMA], while he was still the US DoS INR head.

Goldberg apparently didn’t waste time, as he got the ball rolling as soon as he arrived in Manila.

Funding the Liberal Party

In October 2013, USAID gave $24 million (Php 984 million) to the Philippines’ Gerry Roxas Foundation (GRF) [Star, USAID], purportedly to develop non-government organizations in the Philippines.
Named after Liberal Party (LP) President Mar Roxas’ father, GRF is headed by Roxas’ own mother, Judy Araneta-Roxas, and among the members of the board are Maria Rosario “Charo” Santos-Concio and Marixi R. Prieto [GRF].

Santos-Concio was ABS-CBN’s CEO and President from 2008 to 2016 [Inq], and is currently its Chief Content Officer [ABS]. Meanwhile, Prieto is Inquirer’s chairman to date [Inq].

Nobody could have predicted Duterte’s rise to power, so the 2013 grant, at best, could have been Goldberg’s means to “pay it forward”, i.e. to gain the loyalty of LP and friends.

And the financial gesture is now bearing fruit.Today, the Inquirer and ABS-CBN are the staunchest critics of the Duterte Administration, and both show a patent bias in favor of the Liberal Party [TP: Kill List; TP: Karen Davila].

I would like to expound more on this issue, but I think you already got my point, as the USAID’s gesture is in consonance with Point No. 4 of Goldberg’s strategy, and that it is all-too-similar to what Goldberg did to Bolivia.

But…

Golberg’s strategy, while quite convincing, has several critical weaknesses that undermine its feasibility. In particular, Philip Goldberg’s ouster plan requires at least three crucial elements:

[1] Time, as the ouster plan takes 18 months to implement
[2] Approval, as such a plot requires the State Department’s imprimatur
[3] Replacement, as ousting Duterte requires an acceptable replacement

Time and Approval

I believe Goldberg’s Seven-Point strategy can be implemented in 18 months. The problem, however, is whether Goldberg has the 18 months to do it in the first place.

I have reason to believe that Goldberg prepared this strategy with the assumption that Hillary Clinton, a known proponent of “Humanitarian Intervention” [WaTimes], will succeed US President Barack Obama. For one, Clinton’s likely Pentagon Chief already started advocating for more bombing and intervention in as early as June 2016 [Intercept].

Humanitarian intervention is a euphemism for militarily coercing other states to get things done [Global Policy].

Well, everybody thought Clinton would win. That is, until Republican candidate Donald Trump rained on Clinton’s parade in November.

Now, will Goldberg be able to convince a Trump-era State Department?

The answer is “probably no” based on three grounds:

FIRST: Unlike Clinton, Trump is predicted to be a generally inward-looking president, i.e. someone who is less likely to espouse Humanitarian Intervention [ATimes], when compared to the warmonger Hillary.

SECOND: Goldberg’s career is too closely associated with Clinton and the Democrats [Star], a fact that the Republicans will surely detest.

THIRD: Among other things, Clinton’s 2009 appointment of Goldberg as coordinator of the implementation of sanctions against North Korea, was detested by American Career Diplomats[WaTimes], so Philip may expect resistance from the Diplomatic Establishment.

And there’s one major challenge facing Goldberg’s Strategy: Leni Robredo.

The Replacement

Any ouster plot requires a suitable replacement to one who will be ousted. In this case, it should be Vice-president Maria Leonor “Leni” Robredo of the Liberal Party, and even LP’s “senior management” will agree that there is no other alternative replacement.

And that’s the problem.

After quitting the Duterte Cabinet earlier in December, Robredo’s net satisfaction rating plummeted a mere +37 in December 2016 from +49 the previous month [Star]. Meanwhile, Duterte’s satisfaction rating remained virtually unchanged at +63 in December 2016 from +64 three months earlier [Inq].

Now, imagine how the public would react if a +63 is replaced by a +37.

It wouldn’t be pretty, to say the least.

But it gets worse: Leni’s decision to take a vacation in the United States despite an impending disaster in her bailiwick is expected to exacerbate Leni’s popularity issue [TP: White Christmas].

The Bumbling Replacement

This has led many to question Leni’s true character.

In a 2015 interview, Robredo said “it is very important for local folks to see their government officials during and right after a disaster.”

Well, Leni was on the other side of the planet when Super Typhoon Nina was pounding the Bicol Region. And six days later, Leni has yet to release even a pre-recorded message to console the Bicolanos.

Right now, all she could manage are tweets and written statements, messages that easily be created by her staff, who are probably busy doing damage control while their boss is missing.

Meanwhile, Duterte himself went to Bicol to visit the typhoon victims, where he said:

“I am here because I know that we have to be here during this time.”

I am not sure if this is a swipe at Robredo’s obvious absence, but it sure appears like one.

And for an extremely popular leader to remind everything that his potential replaced is not there for them…

Well, you know the drill.

We can expect Leni’s +37 to go down even further come the next survey period, because what she did during the holidays is far worse than anything she did before [TP: Thief in the Night].

To cut the long story short, the Filipino People will not accept Leni Robredo.

Epilogue

I believe that Goldberg’s Seven-Point Strategy will not work because it lacks the three crucial elements explained in the previous sections. This does not, however, prevent the Liberal Party from attempting their last hurrah.

Remember that LP’s most powerful ally, the US Democratic Party [TP: Trump], is still in power until the Republican Trump’s January 20th inauguration. That is, LP may still attempt a power grab before that date [TP: Plan 0117].

While I am confident that LP will still ultimately fail, I am also pretty certain that such a last-minute power grab attempt will be messy, if not bloody.

But in this world, nothing is certain except uncertainty, so let us all be vigilant. Let us not allow these scheming elites take away our right to choose our leader.

Our forefathers have sacrificed their lives so that we may be able to choose our nation's destiny. Because of their sacrifice, the government’s power now emanates from us, the Filipino People.

And it must stay that way. [ThinkingPinoy]

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Vice-president Leni Robredo will need one hell of an alibi.

But first, here's a background.

USA over Bicol

On 22 December 2016, [GMA] reported that Typhoon Nina (Nock-ten) will hit the Bicol Region on Christmas Day, and that Typhoon Nina is anticipated to become a Category 3 Hurricane.

Despite this warning, Vice-president Leni Robredo still decided to fly to the United States the next day [TP: White Christmas] to attend a family reunion “planned more than a year ago,” according to VP spokesperson Georgina Hernandez [Star].

A trip from Manila to the New York, with at most one 4-hour layover, takes anywhere from 20 to 33 hours [Flights], so it’s safe to say that she arrived in the United States on 24 December 2016, Manila Time.

By the time she arrived in the United States, she should have known that, Nina has further increased in strength [MB] and she should have also known by Christmas morning that Nina has become a super typhoon with winds of up to 250 kph [Star].

Nina hit Bicol on Christmas night, as anticipated.

Despite these dire developments, Robredo decided against going back home, opting to “coordinate” relief efforts through social media [Robredo].

“Keep them coming”

Robredo’s Christmas night tweet is as follows:

“Compiling all reports now so please keep them coming. Meantime, please make sure you are all safe until the rains & winds have died down.”

Now herein lies the problem.
The initial December 23rd GMA report predicted that Nina will become a Category 3 hurricane. When it hit, however, winds have reached 250 kph, indicating that it has become a Category 4 hurricane (Cat4).

The United States National Hurricane Center defines damage caused by Cat4 as follows:

Catastrophic damage will occur: Well-built framed homes can sustain severe damage with loss of most of the roof structure and/or some exterior walls. Most trees will be snapped or uprooted and power poles downed. Fallen trees and power poles will isolate residential areas. Power outages will last weeks to possibly months. Most of the area will be uninhabitable for weeks or months.

Alright, hold on one second: Nina is a Cat4 hurricane, so Nina is expected to down power poles so that by extension, it should also disable internet access in large swathes of land.

So what reports will the Office of the Vice-president be compiling when the fact of the matter is that those on the ground are unlikely to have access to electricity, let alone the internet?

But still, Leni decided to remain abroad.

A day later

On 26 December 2016, a day after Nina pounded Bicol, Robredo spokesperson Hernandez said [Yahoo]:

While we have faith in the resilience of our people, we still call on the Filipino public to help out in the ongoing relief efforts of all agencies and private sector partners to alleviate suffering in typhoon-hit areas during this very special time of the year.

Alright, there’s another problem here: here is the Office of the Vice-president calling on the Filipino public to help out in the relief efforts, when she herself isn’t there to help them, seriously?
Now, I might’ve forgiven her for her ill-timed telecommuting, if not for the fact that she herself denounces what she was doing.Watch the following video:

In this October 2015 interview, Robredo said:

It is important for local folks to see their government officials during and right after a disaster.

Nina hit Bicol on Christmas day and Robredo was not in Bicol. A day later, she still wasn’t in Bicol. Two days later, she still wasn’t in Bicol. And today, on New Year’s day or seven days later, she still hasn’t been to Bicol.

She is still in the United States, despite the fact that flights from the US to the Philippines were available the entire time.

Pricey, yes, but available.

Bicol is supposed to be her bailiwick while Naga City, one of the hardest-hit areas, is actually her hometown. How in the world can VP Leni convince herself that attending a family reunion is more important than attending to her own people? What the hell is this woman thinking?

Jesse Robredo must be turning in his grave.

Six days later

Six days later on 31 December 2016, Robredo has yet to make a public appearance. So far, she only uses three avenues to communicate:

Social media (Twitter and Facebook)
Official written statements
VP Spokesperson Hernandez

Now this is very confusing for me:

Is Leni so busy that she cannot even spare two minutes to record a message of consolation for Nina’s victims?

The fact that she chose a family reunion over Bicolano evacuees is bad enough. And now, she doesn’t even deem the Bicolanos worthy of two minutes of her time?

Seriously, Leni, seriously?

Is this how Leni interprets her catch-phrase “laylayan ng lipunan” (fringes of society)?

This doesn’t make sense. No vice-president can be THAT busy. Can’t she even record a 30-second message while pooping in the toilet? She’s THAT busy?

Something’s wrong

No one is that busy. Even the President Duterte, who is about 20 years her senior and massively busier than her, found the time to visit Bicol. Does even one of the reports Leni “compiled” indicate how much damage Bicol actually suffered?

Leni’s indifference is utterly surreal, so much so that there should be at least one intergalactically compelling reason why she is acting this way.

Is she too busy plotting an ouster with Loida Nicolas-Lewis [Plan 0117]?
Is she too busy with her personal relationships [TP: Frailties]?
Is she too busy enjoying the snow [TP: Hypocrisy]?

What the hell is she so preoccupied with that a mere two minutes of talk time is too much to ask from her? Yes, it’s been seven days since Nina decimated Bicol, and Leni is still nowhere to be found.

Is she currently medically incapacitated?

With Leni’s absence, I cannot help but suspect that it’s Georgina who’s been making the calls since Christmas day. Yes, I suspect that Georgina has been our “VP” this past week.

Poor Georgina, Leni should give her a pay raise for crying out loud!

Leni supporters rebut

A few Leni supporters went to the ThinkingPinoy facebook page and pointed out that she has finally released a recorded video several hours ago, so I went to Robredo’s official page to check it out.

VP Leni New Year's Message 2016
"Nitong parating na taon, isapuso natin ang magandang pagbabago, sa ating sariling pamumuhay, at sa ating pagiging Pilipino. Mahalin natin ang simpleng pamumuhay at simpleng kaligayahan, palalimin ang pamamaraan ng pagsisilbi sa ating mga minamahal, at lawakan ang ating pag-unawa para sa mga nasa laylayan ng lipunan." - Vice President Leni Robredo

Read: https://lenirobredo.com/new-years-message-of-vice-president-leni-robredo/
Posted by Leni Robredo on Friday, December 30, 2016

The video they were pointing out was a New Year’s Day message from Robredo [FB]. A snapshot of the recording is shown below:

Okay, I will admit that I was initially surprised. I was like, “Wow, I might actually be wrong!”

But Robredo knows full well when New Year’s Day will arrive, so it’s easy to pre-record a New Year’s Day message before she flew to the United States.

Now, take a closer look at the dress she’s wearing in the recording. It is actually the same dress she wore on 23 December 2016, or a day prior to her departure for the United States.

But Leni is known for repeating outfits [Inq], so maybe she just accidentally wore the same thing on different days, right?

Well, if she indeed recorded this video after December 23, then it must have been on the evening of December 24th (Manila Time) onwards. She couldn’t have recorded it earlier than that because she was still on a flight. But if she recorded this on the evening of the 24th at the earliest, then she recorded this at a time when she was already aware of what’s happening in Bicol.

But there was no mention of Typhoon Nina anywhere in the video.

Yes, this newly-uploaded New Year’s Day message was recorded on or before December 23rd.

PR Gaffe after PR Gaffe

What’s even more hilarious are some of the lines used in the video.

“Kung may katiwasayan sa ating mga tahanan, mananatili tayong malakas, kahit anong unos pa ang maaring yumanig sa ating bayan.”

[TRANSLATION: If there is calmness in our homes, we will stay resilient, regardless of the storms that may shake our nation.]

Well, the Camarines Sur Sports Complex begs to disagree [Politiko]. Aside from the devastation, Nina also displaced over 380,000 people [Star], all while Leni is getting chummy with family in the United States.

The Camarines Sur Sports Complex before and after #NinaPH

Now, let's move on to the next one:

Ang taong mga lugmok sa kahirapan ay humihiyaw sa galit, at bakit naman hindi? Sila naman talaga ang dapat pinakikinggan ng ating pamahalaan at nating lahat.

[TRANSLATION: The helplessly poor are screaming in anger and why shouldn’t they? They really are the ones whom the government and everyone else should listen to.]

Now, how can VP Leni expect the helplessly poor to tweet reports that she will “compile”? How will she listen to them when she’s literally on the other side of the planet? How, just how?

Mahalin natin ang simpleng pamumuhay at simpleng kaligayahan.

[TRANSLATION: Let’s embrace a simple lifestyle and simple joys.]

I doubt that a tri-state US vacation qualifies as “a simple lifestyle”. Moreover, preferring to attend a family reunion in the US to attending to poor Bicolanos (who are about to get annihilated by a super typhoon) hardly qualifies as “simple joys”.

Do not get me wrong: I have been to the United States myself, but unlike Leni, I never had the gall to promote “a simple lifestyle and simple joys”.

The hypocrisy is strong on this Robredo.

Palalimin ang paraan ng pagsisilbi sa ating minamahal at lawakan ang ating pang-unawa sa mga nasa laylayan ng lipunan.

[TRANSLATION: Deepen our ways of serving loved ones and broaden our understanding of those in the fringes of society.]

Well, it appears that Leni doesn’t understand what a “catastrophic hurricane” means, so I doubt that she can ever sufficiently understand the struggle of those in the “laylayan”.

Now, it’s interesting to note that Leni awkwardly pronounced “nawa” and “katiwasayan” at the start of her video message, suggesting that she was reading from a teleprompter.

Leni, don’t tell me that you didn’t write that yourself. Did Georgina write it for you again? Maybe it’s time to kick you out of your office and let Georgina take over.

But I digress.

No, this video was recorded before Leni left for the US. Any self-respecting OVP employee would be smart enough to avoid those lines mentioned above, in light of the Leni’s Year-end PR nightmare.

TP’s Takeaways

To cut the long story short, the vice-president is still nowhere to be found seven days after a typhoon bulldozed her hometown. Apathy and misplaced priorities are possible explanations, but the OVP will deny both, of course. Instead, OVP should come up with an acceptable alibi for her absence.

Personally, I cannot think of any other possible alibi for her except medical incapacitation.

Was she suffering from the after-effects of general anaesthesia this entire week?

Is she suffering from a condition that we do not know of?

Maybe yes, maybe no, but I still look forward to witnessing more of Georgina’s creativity: I want to see what she'll pull out of her a$$ this time.

Ah, Georgina! You deserve a pay raise. I mean it. [ThinkingPinoy]

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In my recently published article “Globetrotting Leni humiliates self with New Year message”, I explained that the Vice-president Leni Robredo’s silence after Typhoon Nina decimated the Bicol region is mind-boggling.

That is, Robredo has yet to make a public appearance up to this day, or seven days after Nina hit Bicol. So far, she has used only three avenues to communicate: Social media, written statements, and VP Spokesperson Georgina Hernandez.

Let me quote a part it:

Is Leni so busy that she cannot even spare two minutes to record a message of consolation for Nina’s victims? What the hell is she so preoccupied with that a mere two minutes of talk time is too much to ask from her? Yes, it’s been seven days since Nina decimated Bicol, and Leni is still nowhere to be found.

Is she currently medically incapacitated?

Leni can’t send a personal message, let alone visit, her typhoon-ravaged hometown just because she had to attend a family reunion “planned over a year ago”?

We all know that’s bullshit, because this is not her style.

2014 Throwback: Leni and Typhoon Glenda

Let me quote a 2014 report about what Robredo did during Typhoon Glenda [PNM]:

The Bicol National Associations of America hosted by the Midwest chapter headed by Evelyn Tolledo will be held on July 25-27 at the Hilton Hotel in Rosemont, Illinois. Rep. Leni Robredo was scheduled to be the keynote speaker but cancelled her engagement because of the timing of the devastation of Typhoon Glenda.

VP Robredo, the Filipino People deserve one hell of an explanation for your absence. The problem, however, is you chose not to speak, despite your penchant for speaking too often.
There has to be something really pressing for Leni to defy common sense. There has to be.

But Leni has continually refused to provide a satisfactory explanation [TP: NY Msg] so we, the Filipino People, will try to find that explanation ourselves.

New Year’s Eve

After article came out, more information came in. I guess this is the cool part about having hundreds of thousands of followers: my followers become my eyes.

I need to be very careful in writing this article, so I asked the helped of several lawyer friends to make sure that everything on this article is above-board.

Let’s go.
On 31 December 2016, a well-placed source told me:

“Leni still in NY but is flying home Dec 31 midnight but she insists on a dinner that same night. She may miss flight kung ganyan. Maybe her dinner is with Loida. You never know.”

The Loida part is too speculative. However, I can deduce the following from this piece of intel:

That she will be flying back to Manila on New Year’s eve at around midnight, depending on the time zone.
That she will meet someone for dinner, someone so important that she might actually miss her flight.

What piqued my interest was the second part: who did she meet?

A Geriatrics Doctor

Another source provided me with the answer in the form of photos and screenshots of the New Year’s Eve dinner, shown below:

The Robredo Family dining with an unidentified man.

Seen with the Robredo family is a certain Shmuel McBlow.

One Lincoln Plaza is in the heart of New York City’s cultural district. The apartments were built to an old time luxurious standard with the most up to date amenities [Ogden Properties].

Who is Shmuel McBlow?

A quick look at his Facebook profile shows:

As it turns out, this Shmuel McBlow is actually Samuel Maghuyop.

Hmm, Shmuel McBlow makes sense, as Shmuel is a Hebrew variant of Samuel [AHN], while McBlow is a play on the Cebuano prefix “mag-“ and “huyop” is Cebuano for “blow” [Binisaya].

Pretty witty, if you ask me. But I digress.

Who is Samuel Maghuyop?

Who is Samuel Maghuyop and why does he appear to be important, so important that Leni may miss her belated flight back to the devastated Bicol Region?

Leni can't spare a few seconds to record a message for the Bicolanos, but she had at least an hour to dine with just this man? According to [USNews]:

Dr. Samuel Maghuyop is a geriatrics doctor in Brockton, Massachusetts and is affiliated with Signature Healthcare Brockton Hospital. He received his medical degree from University of the Philippines College of Medicine and has been in practice between 11-20 years. He is one of 4 doctors at Signature Healthcare Brockton Hospital who specialize in Geriatrics.

Dr. Maghuyop is a geriatrician [Dox], or a medical doctor who is specially trained to meet the unique healthcare needs of older adults [AGS]

Dr. Maghuyop also happens to provide offer healthcare programs for pregnant/postpartum women [AoA]. The physician directory LifeScript also lists Maghuyop under "Doctors in Brockton, MA who treat or diagnose Pregnancy"[LifeScript].

Hold on one second!

This bears repeating...

VP Robredo, the Filipino People deserve one hell of an explanation for your absence. The problem, however, is you chose not to speak, despite your penchant for speaking too often. But you have continually refused to provide a satisfactory explanation so we, the Filipino People, will try to find that explanation ourselves.

Now let me state the facts:

Robredo met geriatrician Dr. Samuel Maghuyop just a few hours before her midnight flight to Manila. My sources imply that Dr. Maghuyop should be very important to Robredo, considering that she could miss her flight if she meets with him at this time.

What debt of gratitude does Leni owe to Dr. Maghuyop for her to prioritize him over Bicolandia?

Now, here is the part where I need to be very careful:

FIRST, Dr. Maghuyop is a geriatrician. Geriatrics covers menopause, as evidenced by menopause being a common topic in the Journal of the American Geriatrics Society [JoAGS].

SECOND, Dr. Maghuyop also caters to pregnant women [AoA].

THIRD, Leni turned 51 on 23 April 2016 [Politiko].

FOURTH, the median age of menopause for Asian women is 45 to 55 years [KKH].

FIFTH, pregnancy is possible during perimenopause [WHRI], or the “the time when a women naturally starts having menopausal symptoms.”

I leave the rest to you, the reader.

VP Leni Robredo, this is the problem when you don’t talk, especially when the public is used to hearing you talk too often.

Georgina, good luck. [ThinkingPinoy.net]

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Vice-president Leni Robredo’s extremely conspicuous absence during and immediately after Typhoon Nina’s onslaught, along with mainstreams media’s treatment of the issue, has led me to a series of realizations that go way beyond the usual disgust for Leni’s hypocrisy.

#NasaanSiLeni: The Background

Despite having knowing full well that a super typhoon was about to pummel her own hometown, Vice-president Leni Robredo still proceeded to fly to the United States, purportedly to attend a family reunion that was, in the words of her own spokesperson, “planned over a year ago” [TP: Thief in the Night].

The typhoon made landfall in the Bicol Region on the day Leni arrived in Newark Liberty International Airport. From that point forward, all we heard from the VP were through tweets, official written statements, Facebook posts, and announcements from her spokesperson Georgina Hernandez, i.e. messages that could have easily been written not by her, but by her support staff.

From the time Typhoon Nina struck Naga on Christmas Day up to Media Noche, VP Leni was nowhere to be found. Despite the proliferation of cheap communication technologies like Facebook Live, Viber, Whatsapp VoIP, and Snapchat, she failed to spend even ten seconds to send a personal message of consolation for the hundreds of thousands of people that Nina terrorized.

Yes, she wasn’t even able to spare a few seconds out of the three minutes she spends waiting for her poop to drop into the toilet bowl.

She was THAT preoccupied. But with what?

Your guess is as good as mine, but I am not the kind who’s fond with mindless speculation, so I tapped onto my network of contacts.

I found out that she had dinner with a geriatric pregnancy doctor the night before she left for Manila, at the risk of missing her long-overdue flight [TP: Pregnancy Doc].

She found at least an hour to spend with this doctor despite her inability to spend even ten seconds to record a personal message for Bicolano Typhoon victims.

What’s even more confusing? The Robredo camp claimed the VP was attending a family reunion, but it appears that Leni’s siblings — the Geronas — were mostly in Canada during this period.

Now, if that doesn’t raise more than a few eyebrows, I don’t know what else will.

Leni Arrives in Manila

From December 25 to January 1st, mainstream media was largely mum about this issue, with the only news bit being the VP spokesperson’s statement that Robredo went to the US for a family reunion that was planned over a year ago.

Yes, that’s basically it for mainstream, despite mainstream’s vast resources, despite them having news bureaus in the United States.

Yes, there was deafening near-total silence on the issue, and its extremely disturbing.>
Leni arrived in Manila in the morning of January 2nd via a Cathay Pacific flight from New York City, with short a layover in Hong Kong. I have announced her arrival several hours in advance, and my over 300,000 followers (plus Mainstream Media people who follow my blog) knew Leni was arriving in a few hours.

Despite this, not a single mainstream media outlet was waiting at the airport to ambush-interview the vice-president. Not a single mainstream media outlet felt that the people deserve an explanation for the vice-president’s negligence. Yes, it’s as if everything is A-OK.

Leni, despite her propensity for calling too many press conferences, did not immediately call for on upon her arrival. Hours passed and she said nothing, only to suddenly appear in NIA road where a massive fire occurred days before her arrival, apparently to show that “Leni still cares”.

Too bad she was caught laughing while inspecting the site.

Leni’s Press Conference

In a press conference held a day after her Manila arrival, VP Robredo said [ABS]:

"Andun ako (sa US) na ang sama sa loob na may nangyayari dito na wala ako...masama yung timing ngayon. Masama yung loob ko na nangyari yun na wala ako," she said, as she met with victims of the typhoon in Naga City.

TRANSLATION: I felt really bad while I was there and something was happening here. The timing was bad. I feel bad that I was not there (in Bicol) when it (Typhoon Nina) happened.

Robredo also said she found it hard to book return tickets as December was peak season.

Robredo added:

"Napakahirap maghanap ng limang tickets kasi kasama ko yung tatlo kong anak at nanay ko na 80 years old."

TRANSLATION: It was hard to look for and book five tickets. I was with my three daughters and my 80-year-old grandmother.

I think I now have a better idea as to why Leni went on radio silence the entire time she was in the States.

The reason? She’s too stupid for her own good.

First, there is no such thing as a well-timed natural disaster. Did Leni seriously expect Nina to RSVP before it hits the country?

Second, she knew at least a day in advance that Nina is arriving, yet she still left. This clearly shows where her priorities lie. Bayan muna bago sarili (Country before self)? Leni knows nothing of that sort.

Third, two of Leni’s children are already adults. It’s not like they will be helpless if Leni goes back to the Philippines and leaves them behind for the lack of available flights. Bicol needed a vice-president, not the vice-president entire family.

Despite Leni’s lame excuses, mainstream media still appears to be so convinced that Our Lady of Naga is still the best vice-president this country has ever had.

Yes, despite the fact that it shameslessly defies common sense.

Another Anti-Duterte media blitz

Criticism against Leni were confined in social media, as mainstream mass media chose to see no evil and hear no evil.

LP must be hemorrhaging millions in exhange for that deafening silence.

A day before Robredo flew to Manila, we were again witness to another anti-Duterte media blitz using the discredited witness Edgar Matobato, with CNN’s Will Ripley leading the pack, with Ripley even going as far as using the words “Killer with a conscience” to describe Matobato. Then followed the Philippine Daily Inquirer, the Croatian Telegram, the Swedish Dagens Nyheter, the Philippine Canadian Inquirer, among others.

Is this media blitz an attempt to divert public attention from Robredo’s faux pas?

Your guess, again, is just as good as mine.

Regardless, one thing is clear: if one really wants to learn what’s going on, the last place to learn it would be mainstream media.

Now, I would’ve have joined the Filipino public in its righteous indignation over mainstream’s betrayal of public trust, but I am not the kind of person who unnecessarily gets mad.

I do not get mad: I get even.

A rock to bash one’s own head with

I think that by now, it’s already clear that each time Malacanang invites mainstream media to its doorsteps is another opportunity for mainstream media to f*ck them over.

Not too long ago, I wrote an open letter addressed to President Duterte, with a tacit “CC” to Presidential Assistant Christopher “Bong” Go:

Dear Daddy D,

Good evening Mr. President.

I heard the news that you invited five news outlets so they can each conduct an hour-long 1-on-1 interview with you. Interestingly, all these come from the mainstream, and social media does not even have one representative.

You see, Daddy D, I understand that you come from a different time so you may not have the most comprehensive understanding of social media, but I want to respectfully let you know that mainstream is dying, and that you may inadvertently be neglecting the same platform that helped you win last May.

Honestly, we are the ones who actually help prop up your image despite the nonstop barrage from mainstream media.

Why do you still score high on satisfaction surveys? Among other reasons, it's because we help counter the unwarranted shit thrown at you.

I do not harbor ill feelings about your choices in this matter, but Iet me say, with all due respect, that you basically chose the five organizations that are more likely to fuck you over for the nth time.

Social Media is what galvanizes public support for you. Social media is what will help gather the warm bodies who will defend you if and when an ouster attempt materializes.

You know that. We know that. And that's why I wrote this short letter.

There's no point in beating a dead horse, Daddy D.

Please listen to those who listen to you.

Lovingly yours,
TP

And my claims here cannot be truer in light of what’s happening today.

What exactly am I trying to say?

I urge Malacanang to stop treating social media entities like second class citizens. Yes, I heard that they are planning to grant social media access to Malacanang, but that access is nowhere near what mainstream media historically enjoys.

Mr. President, help those who help you.

Just look at my case.

I have been writing as TP since 2015, and despite the painstaking citations in each of my blog posts, I still am struggling to gain legitimacy in the eyes of public, thanks to mainstream players who feel threatened by the fact that scantily-funded political blogs like mine gain much more traction than their social media arms.

I have funded ThinkingPinoy through personal savings, Google Adsense revenues, and voluntary reader donations. That isn’t a lot of money, but I have to make do with it because that’s the reality.

I mean, just look at my situation right now: I have received a couple of death threats for publishing my latest article so I am currently hiding in a foreign country to shield myself from potential assassination attempts.

To make matters worse, I have dealt with death threats in as early as April 2016, when I exposed Sen. Trillanes’ hacker connections.

I have been dealing with death threats since then, and I have trained my brain to think of them as a fact of life. Despite all these, I still write with passion, with every fiber of my being, because I believe that the future of the Filipino is more important than my own.

And I receive nothing in return, except the hope that in the event of my death, I will be seen as a hero by a few.

You are what the people want. And I want to give the people exactly that.

So why, Mr. President, are you making it hard for us to help you?

Why, Mr. Go, why?

What can you do?

But enough of my ranting. Let’s talk about you, the regular Filipino.

Powerlessness is one of the worst feelings anyone can have and you, the regular Filipino citizen, should be very familiar with it, especially after your collective interests have been chronically subverted by mainstream media for the past year.

But you are mistaken: you are not powerless.

Voice your thoughts on social media. You may lose friends in the process, but you will be able to sleep more soundly at night, with the knowledge that you did your part in making the Philippines a better place for your children and your children’s children.

Be not afraid. Make your presence felt.

Gone are the days when a single voice means nothing. Today, anybody can be the next Mocha Uson, the next Sass Rogando Sasot, or the next ThinkingPinoy.

Trust me, no matter how small your voice is, if it screams in unison with the rest of the masses, then no mainstream media outfit can drown it.

Speak your mind! This is the best time to become the best Filipino you can ever be!

Let’s protect the Filipino democracy.

Be with me. [ThinkingPinoy]

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Just when I thought I was done for the day with my newest article Mainstream Media's love affair with Leni Robredo, I was surprised to discover that various pages have been spreading an image that shows a cheque for Php 300,000, allegedly addressed to Mocha Uson and signed by no less than former Senator Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos.

The photo has been shared by Liberal Party-aligned pages with Oras Na Roxas Na leading the pack.

My initial reaction was shock, not for the allegation that Mocha received bribes from BBM, but for the fact it’s hard to believe that Mocha Uson could be bought for so little.

Pero sige, patulan natin.

The allegation

A screenshot of the cheque is show below.

As we can see, the image shows the cheque amounting to Php 300,000, dated 27 December 2016, addressed to a certain “Margaux Uson”, and bears a signaure similar to the signature found on a 2005 holiday card sent by former Sen. Marcos.

All other identifying marks in the check have been redacted, presumably the Silent No More, the original poster.
The image lacks information on the following:

Accountholder’s Name
Account Number
Check Number

Initial Observations

The name, account number, and check number have been redacted, and I found that absurd. The check, if authentic, would be a direct violation of bank secrecy laws. If it were fake, then it would be a violation of existing libel and forgery laws.

Regardless of its authenticity, Silent No More’s administrator has already committed a crime just by publishing the check, so why bother shading those three areas?

Or maybe because it’s harder to photoshop those parts?
For one, I could easily rip off a check from somebody else’ check book, blot the identifying arks, then forge the payee name, amount, and signature, then claim whatever.

But that kind of reasoning is not sufficient to completely debunk Silent No More’s libelous claim, so here’s one more thing.

2016 PCHC Guidelines

All cheques have to go through the Philippine Clearing House Corporation (PCHC) for them to be completely processed. That is, cheques can be encashed only if they were prepared in accordance with PCHC guidelines.

As we can see from the image above, the payee name written on the cheque “Margaux Uson”, despite Mocha having a pair of first names, i.e. Margaux is not Mocha’s complete first name.

Note that the check is dated 27 December 2016.

So what’s the problem?

Well, PCHC has been rejecting cheques with incomplete information since January 2016. Let me quote part of existing PCHC guidelines [PCHC]:

…starting January 4, 2016… checks with INCOMPLETE INFORMATION will no longer be accepted for clearing… When writing a check, necessary information should include the following:

a. Date of the Check
b. Name of Payee
c. Amount Payable in Figures
d. Amount Payable in Words
e. Signature of the Drawer

Yes, the payee's name, as seen on the cheque, is incomplete, so per PCHC guidelines, there’s virtually no way that check could have been encashed, as it was dated AFTER January 2016.

Nice try, Oras Na Roxas Na, but your administrators lack the requisite neuron count to pull this kind of sh!t off.

UPDATE 06 JAN 2016 1130 AM:

From a BPI Branch Manager:

INCOMPLETE INFORMATION — This means that for a cheque to be processed by PCHC, all information necessary should be indicated. Your claim that the cheque is incomplete because "Margaux Uson" is not Mocha's complete name, I believe is incorrect.

1. PCHC only processes the clearing of the cheque. PCHC only handles cheques deposited to another bank different from that of drawer. Example: i deposited a BDO cheque issued to me to my BPI account.
2. It is not PCHC's responsibility to check whether the payee's name is different from the depositor's name. Example: Payee's Name: Margaux Uson, Depositor's Name: Thinking Pinoy. They do not have access to the details of the depositor.
3. That responsibility lies to the depositor's bank. Example, I am a bank manager of a BPI branch, our job is to make sure that the payee is the same person as the depositor. We have this "Know your Client" Policy. So if I believe that Margaux Uson is the same person as Margaux Joy Uson for instance, I can allow the deposit especially if it is within my approval limit.

But the thing with this cheque is that it doesn't have any sign that it has gone through PCHC Clearing, or same bank clearing. It doesn't also have any sign that it has been encashed.

In short, it hasnt been processed yet. Meaning, you're correct that anybody can get any cheque then claim anything most especially if the cheque details are redacted.

xoxox [ThinkingPinoy]

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Oh, Georgina! I pity you.

Last night, my friend Sass Sasot informed me about the existence of a “restricted” Yahoo group called “Global Filipino Diaspora Council” (GFDC) [Yahoo].

The more prominent GFDC members include:

Judging from this list of very influential people, I now have a better idea why international media acts a certain way against President Duterte. Just look at the list: a billionaire financier, two bureaucrats who have access to overseas grassroots organizations, an Inquirer journalist, an ABS-CBN journalist, and a civil society leader.
Now, the chronically negative Western coverage of the Duterte Administration, along with the two Media Blitzes [TP: Mainstream; Plan 0117], suddenly make so much sense now.

For example, we all know that the 30 November 2016 anti-Marcos rally had relatively negligible attendance. A real people power requires over 200,000 people, and attendance on that day did not exceed 15,000, probably much less.

Despite the failure of the anti-burial rally, it was still reported throughout the world, and I think one of the message threads explain why.

Let's look at the 28 November 2016 [GDFC] message thread entitled “5878Re: [globalfildiaspora] dan and jojo, noted and all these groups have copies of this exchange of emails among us and them. thanks Mely Re: To Susan/other egroups, here are the email addresses of those in the US that people can contact re rallies Fwd: These are some suggested PLACARDS for the Nov 30 rally”.

Part of that thread contains the following message:

On Mon, Nov 28, 2016 at 12:19 PM, Dan Songco wrote:

Mely, can you request the groups abroad if they can photo document their rallies and send them to you so we release them to local media? Thanks.

Who is Mely? It's CFO Chairmain Imelda Nicolas.

Another section of the same thread provides us some insight into the size of GFDC's network, as it has people in San Francisco, New York, Chicago. Add that to GDFC's reach in Mainland EU via Sweden's Filomenita Mongaya Høgsholm and Italy's Rowena Sabugo; and the UK via Gene Alcantara and Loline Reed.

Yes, if there is a well-organized, well-funded propaganda machinery, this is it.

But wait, there's more!

NOTE: SHOULD LP/LOIDA/LENI DECIDE TO DELETE THE YAHOO GROUP, I HAVE ALREADY SAVED ALL THE MESSAGES IN THAT GROUP AS PDFS, SO JUST LET ME KNOW IF THERE ARE ANY DEAD LINKS.

Robredo's OVP Socmed pulls the strings

While set as “Restricted”, the group administrator seemingly forgot to make conversations private, and that is how Sass stumbled upon the group's publicly viewable message board, where CFO chairman Imelda Nicolas happens to be the most active contributor.

I am pretty certain that no one in GFDC intended the messages to be publicly available, especially since several of these messages are damning not only for their group, but also to embattled Vice-president Leni Robredo [TP: Thief] and the Liberal Party of the Philippines.
Take, for example, the message Imelda Nicolas posted on 04 January 2017 at 06:55 AM entitled “5915 From the Social Media Group of OVP” [GFDC], which reads:

--------- Forwarded message ---------

From: Facebook

Date: Wed, 4 Jan 2017 at 12:05 AM

Subject: New message from Pete Silva

To: Imelda Nicolas

Pete Silva

Pete Silva 11:35pm Jan 3

FROM OVP SOCMED:

Good morning!

Pro BBM/Duterte groups and influencers have launched simultaneous attacks on VP Leni starting 12 midnight today (Please check Maharlika, Sass, and Mr. Riyoh).

Here are some of the issues that need immediate response from our communities:

1. Late visit for the victims of Typhoon Nina + VP Leni’s “rehab is slow” statement.

-The attacks from their camp:

A. Everything she’s doing now is too late and just for a PR Spin.

B. VP Leni has no right to say the rehab is slow because she was not even there.

C. PRRD has visited way before she did.

-The Responses:

A. VP Leni has always been on top of things. The team was mobilized even before Typhoon Nina hit. She has organized and mobilized private efforts to donate for Bicol, Marinduque, Batangas, and Mindoro.

B. She does not have the mandate and financial capacity to do this, but she has made sure that efforts are consolidated and communicated the needs of the victims to the donors.

C. The dissatisfaction with VP Leni does not come from Bikolanos. It comes from troll influencers (Mocha, Sass, Thinking Pinoy) who NEVER organized or mobilized efforts to help out the typhoon victims.

C. VP Leni cannot shoulder everything. The national government (and other agencies eg DSWD) is the one who needs to step up.

D. Rehabilitation is different from relief operations. It needs building houses, electrification, and making sure that sources of livelihood pre-typhoon are working. We need to call out the national government on this, and take the offensive against their camp for having a simplistic view of the problem.

E. Compare the Duterte and the Robredo visit in Bicol. Digong just gave a speech for the “ceremonial giving of donations”. He did not go to the far flung areas to know their concerns. He never interacted with his constituents. He went there with the media only because he needs to be seen there. VP Leni, on the other hand, visited far flung areas and met with the people. She is on ground zero.

2. The BBM Camp has released several memes to have a “show of force”. Their messaging is to make their memes viral to make it appear like more people voted for BBM as the real VP.

Our attack:

-Flip the memes and show unflattering pictures with controversies of BBM and use their “the real VP” narrative. (suggestions: Cocaine addict, fake diploma, did not graduate college, Sandro is stupid – not even from Oxford which they are claiming)

-Call out BBM and ask where he was during Typhoon Nina (he was in Balesin! ITO BA ANG REAL VP???).

-Use the photos of BBM supporters during the Luneta rally and/or Duterte youth during the Marcos burial rally. The messaging should be: they’re numerous online, but they never deliver the real bodies needed when the battle is offline. They are a fake and paid army.

We would also like to request you and your communities to coordinate with us whenever a new campaign is launched for them and/or against her. You are a very crucial ally in protecting the truth, democracy, and the real mandate of the people. Let us continue fighting the good fight.
--------- End of Message ---------

The Email's Implications

Okay, I am not a BBM supporter, but it's stupid to blame BBM for being in Balesin when the fact of the matter is that unlike VP Robredo, HE IS NOT A GOVERNMENT OFFICIAL RIGHT NOW.

But I digress.

Chairman Nicolas' email containing Pete Silva's Facebook message has several mind-boggling implications:

FIRST, that the Office of the Vice-president (OVP) actively manipulates its supporters. Here, we see that no less than the Office of the Vice-president is instructing Robredo's supporters how they would act on social media, even going as far as instructing Leni supporters to denigrate the president just to prop up the VP's problematic image.

SECOND, that the Office of the Vice-president's propaganda machine is supported by GFDC, a small group of people who wield great international influence and, by virtue of Loida's inclusion, wealth.

I can vividly remember the time when Rappler's Maria Ressa accused Duterte-aligned pages of being a part of some well-oiled PR machinery [TP: Ressa's Pride], when it appears that it actually isthe other side that actually has the means to have such a thing.

THIRD, that the publicly-funded OVP is using government resources to undermine the government. Who pays for the salary of that OVP personnel who sent that message to Pete Silva.

Is it lawful to use government funds for the purpose of undermining the government? This, my friends, is a betrayal of public trust, if not a culpable violation of the Constitution. I have forwarded this email to a few high-profile lawyer-friends for examination.

Off the top of my head, however, I believe that this email may constitute Inciting to Sedition [RPC Art. 142], if not Sedition itself [RPC Art. 139], and/or a violation of the Anti-Graft and Corrupt Practices Act [RA 3019 Sec. 3(e)]. While the Vice-president's immunity from suit is still contended, the OVP's social media personnel, which may include OVP Spokesperson Georgina Hernandez, may still be sued in a court of law. This also includes Pete Silva, and GFDC members who participated in disseminating the OVP's controversial email.

It's more than just THAT email

A deeper look at the message board showed what GFDC's “Sister Act”, Loida Nicolas-Lewis and Imelda Nicolas, have been doing the past several months.

Aside from lobbying in the United Nations against the appointment of Philippine Ambassador to the UN Teddy Boy Locsin [GFDC], Loida Nicolas-Lewis has been active in organizing protest actions calling for President Duterte's resignation.

Part of an Nicolas-Lewis' email dated 04 December 2016 states:

The only way to fight this evil Plot to unseat VP Leni is to ask Duterte to Resign.

After all, he promised to resign in six months if he has not solved the drug epidemic in the Philippines.

He asked for an extension of another six months.

Extension Denied!!!

Join "Duterte Resign Movement"

A cursory look at the email gives me the impression that while absurd, it is still within legal bounds to issue such a statement. A closer look, however, suggests otherwise.

It's clear that Nicolas-Lewis believes that VP Robredo will certainly be unseated if Duterte does not resign, but Nicolas-Lewis is no innocent college activist who would hope against all hopes that the old man will vacate Malacanang.

Now, what would you do you're certain that your bet Leni will lose her position, Duterte refuses to resign (ergo stays in power), and you have $600 million at your disposal?

Yes, that's one of the reasons why Malacanang accused Nicolas-Lewis of hatching an ouster plot. Malacanang appears to be so certain about its existence that it sent trusted Cabinet Sec. Jess Dureza to the US to meet no less than Nicolas-Lewis herself [GMA].

Duterte refuses to resign

I think it's clear by now that Duterte will not resign in the foreseeable future.

In response to those who are supposedly planning to oust him, Duterte said in December [CNNPH]:

“I'll give you a good fight, I'll give you a bloody nose.”

Loida is a billionaire lawyer-businesswoman. She is not stupid. Her initial attempt at calling for Duterte's resignation must have been made for acoustic effect and little else, as it appears that she is actively supporting Leni's election-related cases.

Here is part of an email from Nicolas-Lewis dated 4 December 2016 [GFDC]:

Ely, pls call Lilly my exec asst 212-756-8958 and ask her to connect you to me.

God's blessings,

Loida

>Show message history

Loida,

How do we go about supporting Leni's Legal Defense ?

Ely N.

The phone number mentioned in the email is registered under the Reginald Lewis Foundation, named after Loida's late husband [RLF].

Now, Loida is a billionaire, so what else would Leni need from Loida but... ?

And isn't it interesting that Leni Robredo visited New York City just last week, in absolute defiance to common sense [TP: White Christmas]?

Did Leni and Loida talk about something very important, so important that Leni totally forgot about those in the laylayan?

These discoveries fit perfectly to my article “#OustDuterte: Leila, Leni, Lourdes, Loida, LP and Plan 0117”.

Yes, LP is likely to have its last hurrah soon. Very soon.

Ressa, you have been looking at the wrong place... or was it deliberate?

Oh, and Daddy D, alam mo na. KThxBye! [ThinkingPinoy]

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In yesterday's “#OustDuterte: Inside Leni Robredo's international propaganda maachinery”, Sass Rogando Sasot and I gave you a glimpse of how Vice-president Leni Robredo's well-oiled, well-funded, and hyper-influential PR machine works, thanks to billionaire Fil-Am lobbyist Loida Nicolas-Lewis and the Global Filipino Diaspora Council (GFDC), of which Nicolas-Lewis is part.

The #LeniLeaks issue quickly gained traction as it trended on the number one spot on Twitter yesterday.

Refutations

Over the past year, I have established a reputation for writing well-researched articles with meticulous citations [TP: Aika Robredo]. Regardless, I still expected people to question the authenticity of sources cited, and that's perfectly reasonable.

After all, the key to the credibility of my articles is not the person who wrote it, but the quality and accessibility of my sources. Active citation links allow my readers to verify the facts by their own, allowing them to become part of the investigative process, allowing them to make value judgments of their own.

In the context of #LeniLeaks, it's clear that the question is whether the group indeed existed. This challenge is best encapsulated by a Facebook reaction from one of the commenters on former Interior Secretary Raffy Alunan's facebook posts.

UPDATE (3:37 PM 07 January 2017): I have been notified that this comment was written by a commenter on Alunan's post, not by Alunan himself and I apologize for the error. Regardless, the essence of this article remains the same. The article has been slightly modified to reflect this development.

The reaction reads:

Is this even VERIFIED or is this just being circulated as chismis? To be honest, I can type this up including the date and time stamps with just a shot of diligence and send to a newly-created yahoo group if I wanted to. The tone of composition is very fishy as well – same tone as many assumption and conspiracy theorists going around, not the tone of an insider.

I think it's fair critique, considering that the GFDC yahoo group administrator set the erstwhile publicly-accessible message board to private several hours after I published my article. That is, after setting the messages to private, the citations in yesterday's article that link to pages within GFDC's yahoo groups will be rendered useless.

Hence, the #LeniLeaks issue suddenly faced the possibility of dying a quick natural death.

TP's workaround

But not quite yet: those links can still be brought back to life.
Suffice it to say, I try my best to keep TP hyperlinks live for as long as reasonably possible. However, the problem with the article yesterday is the fact that GFDC's administrator intentionally hid their yahoo group message board, rendering some critical links useless.

However, there is a way to revive these links using a combination of two tools: Google Web Cache, and the online utility Archive.is.

Let me explain how this works.

Tool 1: Google Web Cache

Google Search is useful because it allows netizens to search for virtually anything in just a few seconds. This is made possible through Google's Cache.

Google has special programs called “crawlers” that scour the web for webpages, whether these pages are new, old, or modified. These crawlers take a snapshot of those pages and stores those snapshots to Google's Cache.This way, Google will just have to search its Cache whenever a netizen enters a search term, enabling Google to return results much faster than it would if it manually search the entire World Wide Web each time [GoogleGuide]. To cut the long story short, Google still has cached copies of many of the pages in GFDC's yahoo group. That is, we can look for Google's snapshots and use those snapshots as a substitute target page for the dead TP links.

There are many ways to access cached pages, but I chose the most convenient, cachedview.com, which allows me to access cached copies of any given URL, if available.

Tool 2: Archive.is

Cached pages, however, are temporary pages. Google regularly updates it caches every now and then. That is, a page's snapshot may be gone after some time. Thus, it's important to “freeze” a snapshot so that it can still be viewed even after Google updates or flushes it cache.

To do this, I used Archive.is, a website that stores snapshots of web pages. This way, we can “freeze” the snapshot and make it accessible far longer than it would.
The alternative to this 2-tool process is saving the pages on my own PC, but that may cause some sort of chain of custody issue because files saved on a PC can be tampered, roughly similar to how the Smartmatic modified the source code during the May 2016 elections [TP: BBM vs Leni].

With the Google Web Cache (CachedView) and Archive.is combo, however, we can be assured that contents of the page have not been tampered with, as the process is entirely automated. Moreover, both utilities are owned by third parties who are disinterested in the #LeniLeaks issue.

I think the best way to explain the process is through an example, and let's use the one of Nicolas-Lewis' GFDC messages with URL https://beta.groups.yahoo.com/neo/groups/globalfildiaspora/conversations/messages/5904, which is basically a dead link because of access restrictions.

How to archive a page snapshot

Now, suppose I deleted that article for whatever reason, but some guy from somewhere wants to know what's in it. This is what we do:

First, go to cachedview.com, enter the desired URL, then click “Google Web Cache”. The site will then send you to the cached copy, or snapshot, of that URL.

Second, go to the browser's address bar and copy the cached page's address, which is usually in the form of https://webcache.googleusercontent.com/search?q=cache:URL

Third, go to Archive.is, enter the newly-acquired cached page URL in the red field, then click “save the page”

Wait for the process to finish, and you will be sent to the archived version of the cached page, and the URL of that archive will be used a subsitute for the “dead” URL.

Hence, for the Loida example...

Original Article: https://beta.groups.yahoo.com/neo/groups/globalfildiaspora/conversations/messages/5904
Cached Copy: https://webcache.googleusercontent.com/search?q=cache:http://cnnphilippines.com/news/2017/01/06/filipinos-trust-duterte-pulse-asia-survey.html
Archived Cache: https://archive.fo/R4pon

Now, we can use the Archived Copy as a substitute target page in case the original article is no longer available. And that's what I did to all the dead links in yesterday's article, since all the links leading to GFDC pages lead to a dead end. That is, all the dead links in yesterday's article are now back to life.

Fabricated Evidence? Writing Style?

Now that we have settled potential chain of custody issues arising from using substitute sources, I think it's time to answer the other part of Sec. Alunan's question, which is:

To be honest, I can type this up including the date and time stamps with just a shot of diligence and send to a newly-created yahoo group if I wanted to.

This will be true only if I have access to both Yahoo's and Google's servers, a feat that even Loida Nicolas-Lewis' camp, with all her power and wealth, cannot achieve.

Take, for example, the email containing instructions allegedly from the Office of the Vice-president [GFDC]. A screen capture of the top part of the archived copy is shown below:

This part shows where the snapshot came from, i.e. from Google's cache of the GFDC post, along with date and time at which Google's crawlers took a snapshot of that page.

Hence, the issue on whether Google's crawlers got it from the actual yahoo group is settled. The question now is whether this post is “planted evidence” or not.

To address that, a screen capture of the bottom part of the archived copy is shown below:

As you can see, the post has web elements that are impossible to modify without hacking skills that are good enough to fool Yahoo's own servers. The time stamp of Jan 4 6:55 AM, in particular, is not something that is easily modified.

If the reader knows how to bypass Yahoo's security, I sincerely plead that she teach me how.

Aside from that, the reality is that Leni virtually had no critics before the 2016 elections

If the GFDC Yahoo Group was indeed fabricated, how would that explain the existence of posts from [2014], [2013], [2012]?

Moreover, it's interesting to note that this OVP Socmed message is corroborated by an identical message posted on Pro-Leni facebook group “Educators for Leni Robredo” about 11 hours after the 6:55 AM email [FB].

Now, dear reader, I understand your qualms about my writing style.

But substance over form. Substance over form. Do not make the same mistake as that committed by the #Disente crowd.

TO READ THE ORIGINAL ARTICLE, CLICK HERE.

Epilogue

I am still giving mainstream media the benefit of the doubt on the issue of its reluctance to cover the #LeniLeaks issue, owing to the dead links yesterday.

But now that the links are live again, let's see if mainstream media men will finally have the balls to standup against their elite overlords.

What do you think, Maria Ressa? [ThinkingPinoy]

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