The Kill List contains over 600 entries over a 47-day period, and the Inquirer argues that “The surge in the killing of suspected criminals since June 30, 2016, has been marked and unmistakable.”
A closer look at the document shows that this is an unfounded claim, as the existence of a “surge” requires the Inquirer to show that 646 deaths in July is markedly higher than a previous period. That is, showing a “surge” requires comparing statistics, something that the Inquirer did not provide.
Despite this flagrant deficiency, it appears that international media organizations took Inquirer’s word for it.
In this second part (plus the next), I decided to specifically focus on the claim that there has been a “marked and unmistakable surge in killings” since Duterte took office on 30 June 2016. I will do this on two levels:
- Explaining the situation that Duterte inherited from the past administration, and
- Comparing PH killings statistics to an "internationally-tolerable" benchmark.
Not just “Marked and Unmistakable"
More than just showing that the surge is “marked and unmistakable”, Inquirer should have also explained why it is “unreasonable and unjustified”. These two additional adjectives is the root of international media’s rage.The Inquirer should have first proven that simply continuing Aquino Era crime-fighting programs sufficiently kept crime within a manageable range, which would eliminate the need for the intensification of efforts in the succeeding administration.
The Inquirer didn’t do that. Instead, it hastily concluded that there’s an unreasonable, marked, and unmistakable bloodbath going on.
if the Aquino Era neglected the crime situation, then Duterte would simply be cleaning up the gigantic mess that the Liberal Party left behind. That’s the possibility the Inquirer failed to discount.
Why? Because news reports indicate that former President Aquino willfully neglected his job.
The war on crime is a war on drugs
Drugs are the primary focus of today’s war on crime is the enforcement of the 2002 Dangerous Drugs Act [RA 9165], as over 90% of the entries in the Kill List are allegedly drug-related.Now, let’s recall what I mentioned earlier:
The Inquirer should have first proven that simply continuing Aquino Era crime-fighting programs sufficiently kept crime within a manageable range, which would eliminate the need for the intensification of efforts in the succeeding administration.Specifically, let’s see how Aquino handled the drug issue while he was still in power.
Aquino’s Priorities
The drug use epidemic has been here in as early as 2012, perhaps even earlier, as 1.3 million addicts do not just sprout from nowhere. Despite this alarming figure, the Liberal Party’s (LP) Aquino never considered illegal drugs as a priority of his administration.Let’s take a look at the Aquino Administration’s priorities as laid out in his annual State of the Nation Addresses (SONAs).
The 2010 SONA did not even contain the word “drug” or “droga”, despite LP treasurer Rafael Nantes’ connections with the international drug trade [Balita]. This is also despite former Defense Sec. Gibo Teodoro and Sen. Tito Sotto’s claims that 2010 electoral campaigns might have been supported by drug money [AE].
The 2011 SONA mentioned “drug trafficking” once, but it was clumped with tax evasion, human trafficking, smuggling, graft and corruption, and extrajudicial killings. That is, he spent no more than five seconds to discuss the gigantic drug issue at that time.
The 2012 SONA contained only one sentence about drugs. Aquino reported 10,000 drug-related arrests in 2011. Aquino didn’t elaborate.
The 2013 SONA mentioned drugs only once, but only as a way to explain the general smuggling issue in the Bureau of Customs. Aquino didn’t elaborate.
The 2014 SONA mentioned drugs only once, but only as a way to explain the general smuggling issue in the Bureau of Customs. Aquino didn’t elaborate. Yes, same story as 2013’s.
The 2015 SONA, Aquino’s last, was just like 2010’s: zero mentions of drugs or anything of that sort.
What happened under Aquino?
For six full years, the Aquino administration never considered the drug issue as the national epidemic that it is.
- The National Penitentiary became a gangster’s paradise, where inmates rub elbows with the Justice Secretary and even Aquino himself [TP: Gangster’s Code].
- The notorious Mexican Drug Cartels entered the local illegal drugs market [TP: Sinaloa].
- The druggist PNP General Pagdilao experienced a meteoric rise in rank, thanks to Aquino and LP president Mar Roxas [TP: Robredo].
- The most honest cabinet member ever, Jesse Robredo, died in office [TP: Robredo]. As Interior Sec. Robredo theoretically had control over the police as head of the National Police Commission.
- By the end of Aquino’s term, 20% of all villages (barangays) in the Philippines are drug affected [MT], with 92% of Metro Manila Barangays are drug affected [Star].
While still president, Aquino was even given a list of big-time drug lords that includes high-ranking public officials. Aquino simply ignored the list, according to former drug enforcement agency Sec. Belgica [TP: Narcopolitics].
As of 2012, there were already 1.2 million drug addicts in the country [DDB] or about 1.2% of the 2012 national population [ABS]. By 2015, the number rose to 3 million [Journal], or about 2.9% of the 2015 national population.
Aquino’s criminal negligence resulted into 100 times more Filipino drug addicts today than there were infections in the 2014 West African Ebola epidemic [CDC]. There are so many Filipino drug addicts right now that it will take 200 years to rehabilitate all of them given the present healthcare system [Senate].
So, did Aquino do his job? No, he sucked so freaking bad.
And this is just the drug problem, which comprises over 90% of the Kill List. We are have not even talked about murderers, robbers, and rapists.
The Aquino administration willfully ignored the illegal drugs situation for six full years, so that it escalated into a national security threat by the time he stepped down.
A drug problem of this magnitude necessitates a response of similar magnitude, and that was exactly what Duterte provided. But...
Arrest-related Death Rate
Despite the magnitude of Duterte’s response, we still have to make sure that the PNP is not killing too many people in the process, right?Let’s do that by citing some numbers.
In July 2016 alone, over 600,000 drug pushers and drug users [GMA] have surrendered or were arrested, and are being scheduled for prosecution or rehabilitation [ABS].
Now, the Inquirer Kill List tallied about 600 deaths from 30 June 2016 to 15 August 2016. Even if all these deaths were drug-related, and even if they all happened entirely in July 2016, that’s about 1 casualty per 1,000 successful arrests.
This translates to an Arrest-related Death Rate (ADR) of less than 0.2% for drug-related crimes.
DEFINITION: The Arrest-related Death Rate (ADR) refers to the percent of casualties divided by the total number of successful arrests, over a given time period.Hence, we ask:
Is 0.2% too much?Let's see.
“Every life is precious!”
Now, human rights activists would surely say, “Every life is precious!” – even I agree with that. But let’s ask:Where’s the unreasonable and unjustified “marked and unmistakable surge”?As I have repeatedly pointed out, this concept is extremely ambiguous. However, judging from the reaction of international media agencies, it would be safe to say that the ADR of Duterte-era Philippines is “markedly and unmistakably” higher than those in developed countries.
Of all current administration’s international critics, the most well-known is the United States government, who, just a week ago, “expressed concern” over the recent spate of killings [Star].
The US government essentially says that the ADR of Duterte-era Philippines is “markedly and unmistakably” higher than that in the United States.
Truth, however, is quite the opposite.
The United States Bureau of Justice Statistics [US BJS] recorded an ADR of 6.4% for drug-related arrests. That is, 64 in every 1000 people die in drug-related arrests in America. Yes, that is 64 times the arrest-related death rate for drug offenses in the Philippines.
Yes, the PNP's performance today is even better than the Americans from 2003 to 2009.
Even if there was a surge, is the “marked and unmistakable surge” unreasonable and unjustified?
No.
Was there a global media outcry on drug-related killings in American during those years?
No.
Is the international community basically implying that 0.2% ADR is too high for the Philippines, but 6.4% is just okay for the United States?
Yes.
That’s just stupid. T*ngina niyo pala e.
“Every life is precious”, the mantra of human rights advocates...
If the Philippines had the same an ADR as the US, there would have been 600,000 X 0.064 = 38,400 deaths in July alone. But that’s not the case. There were only about 600 deaths during this period.
Instead of hurling vitriol, Gascon, de Lima, and human rights protesters should be kissing Duterte’s ass, or ....
Would they rather have the "acceptable" American ADR and have 38,400 dead instead?There are abusive and corrupt policemen, but do the numbers from the Kill List indicate a trend that’s worthy of international condemnation?
No. No. A big f*cking no.
At this point, I ask, where is all the hatred coming from?
Oh, because you wanted the drug lord Mar Roxas to win, right?
F*CK YOU!
YOU DO NOT MESS WITH MY COUNTRYMEN.
Vigilante Killings
We are now left with the final issue:Did Duterte’s pronouncements lead to a drastic rise in vigilante Killings?
We will answer that in “Debunking Inquirer’s ‘The Kill List’ Part 3 of 3: Vigilante Killings” [ThinkingPinoy]
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